21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
CAZ

Cruz Azul @ Tigres

Liga MX · · Estadio Universitario

UANL

Cruz Azul 9-2-4 · 29 pts · 3rd Liga MX · Form DWWWW
Tigres 3-6-6 · 15 pts · 15th Liga MX · Form WDLDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
CAZCruz Azul
41% to win

Draw 26% · Tigres 33%

ModelCAZ 41%UANL 33%
MarketCAZ 41%UANL 33%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 41% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
UANL win+18033% · +204
Draw+25026% · +281
CAZ win+12541% · +145
UANL or draw–59%
CAZ or draw–67%
HandicapUANL +0.5 (-175)UANL 59%
Total 2.5O -160 · U +110Over 56%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
UANL 1.4, CAZ 1.6
Likeliest scores (UANL first)
1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%)
Both teams score
60%
Clean sheet
UANL 21% · CAZ 25%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Cruz Azul can win

  1. Goal difference: Cruz Azul are +0.67 a game this season (2.27 scored, 1.60 conceded); Tigres -0.47.
  2. Form: Cruz Azul took 13 points from their last five (D-W-W-W-W), Tigres 5 (W-D-L-D-L).
  3. Scoring: Cruz Azul score 2.27 goals a game, Tigres 1.00.
  4. The table: Cruz Azul sit 3rd with 29 points from 15 games, Tigres 15th with 15.
  5. Shots on target: Cruz Azul out-shoot opponents by +2.1 on target a game, Tigres by +0.1. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  6. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Cruz Azul about 0.34 goals a game stronger than Tigres before home field.
  7. Expected goals: Cruz Azul average 1.6 goals in the simulations, Tigres 1.4.

Disadvantages Why Cruz Azul may not

  1. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Cruz Azul to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 64% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: Tigres won 33% of simulated matches. A 41% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

CAZ Cruz AzulUANL Tigres
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
3rd, 29 ptsTable15th, 15 pts
2.27Goals for / game1.00
1.60Goals against / game1.47
7.0Shots on target / game4.9
4.9On target against / game4.9
13%Clean sheets27%
5-1-2Home W-D-L3-2-1
4-1-2Away W-D-L0-4-5
D-W-W-W-WLast fiveW-D-L-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Feb 15, 2026 · Liga MX Cruz Azul 2-1 Tigres
  • Dec 6, 2025 · Liga MX Tigres 1-1 Cruz Azul
  • Dec 3, 2025 · Liga MX Cruz Azul 1-1 Tigres
  • Oct 4, 2025 · Liga MX Tigres 1-1 Cruz Azul
  • Feb 15, 2025 · Liga MX Tigres 2-1 Cruz Azul

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat