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PAC

Pachuca @ Atlas

Liga MX · · Estadio Jalisco

ATS

Pachuca 5-4-6 · 19 pts · 12th Liga MX · Form DLLWW
Atlas 8-3-4 · 27 pts · 4th Liga MX · Form DWLWW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ATSAtlas
41% to win

Draw 26% · Pachuca 33%

ModelPAC 33%ATS 41%
MarketPAC 33%ATS 41%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 41% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
ATS win+12541% · +142
Draw+25526% · +282
PAC win+18533% · +207
ATS or draw–67%
PAC or draw–59%
HandicapATS -0.5 (+110)ATS 41%
Total 2.5O -160 · U +110Over 57%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
ATS 1.6, PAC 1.4
Likeliest scores (ATS first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
60%
Clean sheet
ATS 26% · PAC 20%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Atlas can win

  1. The table: Atlas sit 4th with 27 points from 15 games, Pachuca 12th with 19.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Atlas average 1.6 goals in the simulations, Pachuca 1.4.
  4. Clean sheet: Atlas kept Pachuca scoreless in 26% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Atlas 41%, draw 26%, Pachuca 33% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Atlas won 41% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Atlas may not

  1. Goal difference: Pachuca are +0.40 a game this season (1.67 scored, 1.27 conceded); Atlas +0.00.
  2. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Atlas to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  3. Defense: Pachuca concede 1.27 a game, Atlas 1.73.
  4. Home and away: Atlas are 2-3-3 at home, Pachuca 4-1-3 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Pachuca about 0.14 goals a game stronger than Atlas before home field.
  6. Fine margins: 64% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  7. Upset odds: Pachuca won 32% of simulated matches. A 41% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

PAC PachucaATS Atlas
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
12th, 19 ptsTable4th, 27 pts
1.67Goals for / game1.73
1.27Goals against / game1.73
4.7Shots on target / game4.1
5.0On target against / game4.5
27%Clean sheets27%
1-3-3Home W-D-L2-3-3
4-1-3Away W-D-L6-0-1
D-L-L-W-WLast fiveD-W-L-W-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Feb 14, 2026 · Liga MX Pachuca 3-1 Atlas
  • Aug 9, 2025 · Liga MX Atlas 0-3 Pachuca
  • Feb 1, 2025 · Liga MX Pachuca 0-0 Atlas
  • Sep 13, 2024 · Liga MX Atlas 2-0 Pachuca
  • Jan 31, 2024 · Liga MX Pachuca 4-3 Atlas

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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