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SAN

Santos @ Atlante

Liga MX · · Estadio Banorte

ATL

Santos 7-1-7 · 22 pts · 8th Liga MX · Form WWWLW
Atlante 3-5-7 · 14 pts · 16th Liga MX · Form LLWLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ATLAtlante
43% to win

Draw 26% · Santos 32%

ModelSAN 32%ATL 43%
MarketSAN 32%ATL 43%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 43% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
ATL win+12043% · +135
Draw+26526% · +290
SAN win+19532% · +215
ATL or draw–68%
SAN or draw–57%
HandicapATL -0.5 (+110)ATL 43%
Total 2.5O -185 · U +130Over 58%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
ATL 1.6, SAN 1.4
Likeliest scores (ATL first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
62%
Clean sheet
ATL 24% · SAN 20%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Atlante can win

  1. Shots on target: Atlante out-shoot opponents by +0.2 on target a game, Santos by -1.1. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Atlante average 1.6 goals in the simulations, Santos 1.4.
  4. Clean sheet: Atlante kept Santos scoreless in 24% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Atlante 43%, draw 26%, Santos 32% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Atlante won 42% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Atlante may not

  1. Form: Santos took 12 points from their last five (W-W-W-L-W), Atlante 3 (L-L-W-L-L).
  2. Goal difference: Santos are +0.07 a game this season (1.40 scored, 1.33 conceded); Atlante -0.53.
  3. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Atlante to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  4. The table: Santos sit 8th with 22 points from 15 games, Atlante 16th with 14.
  5. Clean sheets: Santos kept one in 33% of games, Atlante in 13%.
  6. Scoring: Santos score 1.40 goals a game, Atlante 1.07.
  7. Defense: Santos concede 1.33 a game, Atlante 1.60.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

SAN SantosATL Atlante
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
8th, 22 ptsTable16th, 14 pts
1.40Goals for / game1.07
1.33Goals against / game1.60
4.3Shots on target / game5.1
5.4On target against / game4.9
33%Clean sheets13%
5-1-2Home W-D-L1-3-3
2-0-5Away W-D-L2-2-4
W-W-W-L-WLast fiveL-L-W-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 3 meetings

  • Apr 13, 2014 · Liga MX Santos 4-3 Atlante
  • Mar 9, 2013 · Liga MX Santos 2-1 Atlante
  • Sep 30, 2012 · Liga MX Atlante 1-3 Santos

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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