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TIJ

Tijuana @ Necaxa

Liga MX · · Estadio Victoria

NCX

Tijuana 5-7-3 · 22 pts · 6th Liga MX · Form DDWDD
Necaxa 2-4-9 · 10 pts · 17th Liga MX · Form DLLDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
NCXNecaxa
40% to win

Draw 25% · Tijuana 35%

ModelTIJ 35%NCX 40%
MarketTIJ 35%NCX 40%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 40% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
NCX win+13540% · +151
Draw+27025% · +294
TIJ win+17035% · +188
NCX or draw–65%
TIJ or draw–60%
HandicapNCX -0.5 (+120)NCX 40%
Total 2.5O -180 · U +125Over 60%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
NCX 1.6, TIJ 1.5
Likeliest scores (NCX first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
63%
Clean sheet
NCX 22% · TIJ 20%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Necaxa can win

  1. Shots on target: Necaxa out-shoot opponents by -0.1 on target a game, Tijuana by -1.2. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.25 goals a game in the Liga MX, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Necaxa average 1.6 goals in the simulations, Tijuana 1.5.
  4. Clean sheet: Necaxa kept Tijuana scoreless in 22% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Necaxa 40%, draw 25%, Tijuana 35% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Necaxa won 39% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Necaxa may not

  1. Goal difference: Tijuana are +0.27 a game this season (1.67 scored, 1.40 conceded); Necaxa -0.80.
  2. Form: Tijuana took 7 points from their last five (D-D-W-D-D), Necaxa 2 (D-L-L-D-L).
  3. The table: Tijuana sit 6th with 22 points from 15 games, Necaxa 17th with 10.
  4. Scoring: Tijuana score 1.67 goals a game, Necaxa 1.07.
  5. Clean sheets: Tijuana kept one in 27% of games, Necaxa in 0%.
  6. The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Necaxa to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  7. Defense: Tijuana concede 1.40 a game, Necaxa 1.87.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

TIJ TijuanaNCX Necaxa
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
6th, 22 ptsTable17th, 10 pts
1.67Goals for / game1.07
1.40Goals against / game1.87
4.1Shots on target / game5.1
5.3On target against / game5.3
27%Clean sheets0%
5-1-2Home W-D-L2-1-5
0-6-1Away W-D-L0-3-4
D-D-W-D-DLast fiveD-L-L-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Mar 20, 2026 · Liga MX Necaxa 3-0 Tijuana
  • Aug 31, 2025 · Liga MX Tijuana 3-0 Necaxa
  • Apr 4, 2025 · Liga MX Tijuana 1-2 Necaxa
  • Oct 18, 2024 · Liga MX Necaxa 1-2 Tijuana
  • Apr 5, 2024 · Liga MX Tijuana 2-3 Necaxa

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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