21+ only. Information and entertainment, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (Arizona) or 1-800-GAMBLER.

AZMango Tip jar
Invite
JUA

Juárez @ Atl. San Luis

Liga MX · · Estadio Libertad Financiera

ASL

Juárez 2-2-11 · 8 pts · 18th Liga MX · Form DLLDW
Atl. San Luis 5-4-6 · 19 pts · 13th Liga MX · Form LDWWL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ASLAtlético de San Luis
54% to win

Draw 24% · Juárez 21%

ModelJUA 21%ASL 54%
MarketJUA 21%ASL 54%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
ASL win-14054% · -120
Draw+28524% · +312
JUA win+34021% · +371
ASL or draw–79%
JUA or draw–46%
HandicapASL -0.5 (-150)ASL 55%
Total 2.5O -145 · U +105Over 56%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
ASL 1.9, JUA 1.1
Likeliest scores (ASL first)
1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%)
Both teams score
57%
Clean sheet
ASL 33% · JUA 16%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Atl. San Luis can win

  1. Goal difference: Atl. San Luis are -0.27 a game this season (1.27 scored, 1.53 conceded); Juárez -1.47.
  2. Defense: Atl. San Luis concede 1.53 a game, Juárez 2.27.
  3. Shots on target: Atl. San Luis out-shoot opponents by -1.1 on target a game, Juárez by -3.7. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  4. Home and away: Atl. San Luis are 2-2-4 at home, Juárez 0-1-6 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. Scoring: Atl. San Luis score 1.27 goals a game, Juárez 0.80.
  6. The table: Atl. San Luis sit 13th with 19 points from 15 games, Juárez 18th with 8.
  7. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Atl. San Luis about 0.33 goals a game stronger than Juárez before home field.

Disadvantages Why Atl. San Luis may not

  1. The draw: 24% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Atl. San Luis to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 60% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Juárez won 22% of simulated matches. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

Loading…

AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

JUA JuárezASL Atl. San Luis
Liga MXLeagueLiga MX
18th, 8 ptsTable13th, 19 pts
0.80Goals for / game1.27
2.27Goals against / game1.53
2.9Shots on target / game4.2
6.5On target against / game5.3
7%Clean sheets13%
2-1-5Home W-D-L2-2-4
0-1-6Away W-D-L3-2-2
D-L-L-D-WLast fiveL-D-W-W-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Apr 25, 2026 · Liga MX Juárez 2-1 Atl. San Luis
  • Oct 31, 2025 · Liga MX Atl. San Luis 1-2 Juárez
  • Mar 7, 2025 · Liga MX Atl. San Luis 1-0 Juárez
  • Oct 27, 2024 · Liga MX Juárez 2-4 Atl. San Luis
  • Apr 8, 2024 · Liga MX Atl. San Luis 2-3 Juárez

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

Game chat

    Sign in or create a free account to chat.

    Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat