Man City 7-0-2 · 21 pts · 2nd Premier League · Form LWWLL
Forest 1-3-5 · 6 pts · 19th Premier League · Form LLLDL
Game day
KickoffDraw 24% · Forest 21%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| NFO win | +340 | 21% · +367 |
| Draw | +300 | 24% · +324 |
| MNC win | -140 | 55% · -122 |
| NFO or draw | – | 45% |
| MNC or draw | – | 79% |
| Handicap | NFO +0.5 (+105) | NFO 45% |
| Total 2.5 | O -160 · U +125 | Over 60% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- NFO 1.1, MNC 1.9
- Likeliest scores (NFO first)
- 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%)
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- NFO 15% · MNC 32%
Advantages Why Man City can win
- Goal difference: Man City are +1.11 a game this season (2.22 scored, 1.11 conceded); Forest -0.67.
- Scoring: Man City score 2.22 goals a game, Forest 0.67.
- Home and away: Forest are 0-1-3 at home, Man City 3-0-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- The table: Man City sit 2nd with 21 points from 9 games, Forest 19th with 6.
- Form: Man City took 6 points from their last five (L-W-W-L-L), Forest 1 (L-L-L-D-L).
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Man City about 0.70 goals a game stronger than Forest before home field.
- Clean sheets: Man City kept one in 33% of games, Forest in 11%.
Disadvantages Why Man City may not
- The draw: 24% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Man City to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 59% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Forest won 21% of simulated matches. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| MNC Man City | NFO Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | League | Premier League |
| 2nd, 21 pts | Table | 19th, 6 pts |
| 2.22 | Goals for / game | 0.67 |
| 1.11 | Goals against / game | 1.33 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target / game | 3.4 |
| 3.8 | On target against / game | 3.0 |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 4-0-1 | Home W-D-L | 0-1-3 |
| 3-0-1 | Away W-D-L | 1-2-2 |
| L-W-W-L-L | Last five | L-L-L-D-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Mar 4, 2026 · EPL Man City 2-2 Forest
- Dec 27, 2025 · EPL Forest 1-2 Man City
- Mar 8, 2025 · EPL Forest 1-0 Man City
- Dec 4, 2024 · EPL Man City 3-0 Forest
- Apr 28, 2024 · EPL Forest 0-2 Man City
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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