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TOT

Spurs @ Leeds

Premier League · · Elland Road

LEE

Spurs 3-3-3 · 12 pts · 9th Premier League · Form LDWWW
Leeds 2-5-2 · 11 pts · 12th Premier League · Form DLDDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
LEELeeds United
37% to win

Draw 28% · Spurs 35%

ModelTOT 35%LEE 37%
MarketTOT 35%LEE 37%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 37% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
LEE win+15537% · +171
Draw+23528% · +255
TOT win+17035% · +186
LEE or draw–65%
TOT or draw–63%
HandicapLEE -0.5 (+140)LEE 37%
Total 2.5O -110 · U -120Over 50%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
LEE 1.4, TOT 1.3
Likeliest scores (LEE first)
1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%)
Both teams score
56%
Clean sheet
LEE 27% · TOT 26%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Leeds can win

  1. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  2. Expected goals: Leeds average 1.4 goals in the simulations, Spurs 1.3.
  3. Clean sheet: Leeds kept Spurs scoreless in 27% of simulated matches.
  4. The betting market agrees: Leeds 37%, draw 28%, Spurs 35% on DraftKings's odds.
  5. Simulation: Leeds won 37% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Leeds may not

  1. Form: Spurs took 10 points from their last five (L-D-W-W-W), Leeds 3 (D-L-D-D-L).
  2. The draw: 28% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Leeds to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  3. Shots on target: Spurs out-shoot opponents by +1.0 on target a game, Leeds by -0.7. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  4. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Spurs about 0.12 goals a game stronger than Leeds before home field.
  5. Fine margins: 67% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  6. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  7. Upset odds: Spurs won 34% of simulated matches. A 37% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

TOT SpursLEE Leeds
Premier LeagueLeaguePremier League
9th, 12 ptsTable12th, 11 pts
1.11Goals for / game1.00
1.11Goals against / game0.89
4.4Shots on target / game3.7
3.4On target against / game4.3
44%Clean sheets33%
2-1-2Home W-D-L1-3-0
1-2-1Away W-D-L1-2-2
L-D-W-W-WLast fiveD-L-D-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • May 11, 2026 · EPL Spurs 1-1 Leeds
  • Oct 4, 2025 · EPL Leeds 1-2 Spurs
  • May 28, 2023 · EPL Leeds 1-4 Spurs
  • Nov 12, 2022 · EPL Spurs 4-3 Leeds
  • Feb 26, 2022 · EPL Leeds 0-4 Spurs

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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