Bournemouth 3-3-3 · 12 pts · 8th Premier League · Form WWWWW
Ipswich 3-2-4 · 11 pts · 14th Premier League · Form LWLDD
Game day
KickoffDraw 26% · Ipswich 26%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| IPS win | +270 | 26% · +290 |
| Draw | +270 | 26% · +290 |
| BOU win | -105 | 49% · +106 |
| IPS or draw | – | 51% |
| BOU or draw | – | 74% |
| Handicap | IPS +0.5 (-125) | IPS 51% |
| Total 2.5 | O -150 · U +115 | Over 56% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- IPS 1.2, BOU 1.7
- Likeliest scores (IPS first)
- 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%)
- Both teams score
- 58%
- Clean sheet
- IPS 18% · BOU 30%
Advantages Why Bournemouth can win
- Form: Bournemouth took 15 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-W), Ipswich 5 (L-W-L-D-D).
- Goal difference: Bournemouth are +0.11 a game this season (1.56 scored, 1.44 conceded); Ipswich -0.44.
- Clean sheets: Bournemouth kept one in 33% of games, Ipswich in 0%.
- Shots on target: Bournemouth out-shoot opponents by +1.4 on target a game, Ipswich by -1.1. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Defense: Bournemouth concede 1.44 a game, Ipswich 2.00.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Bournemouth about 0.61 goals a game stronger than Ipswich before home field.
- The table: Bournemouth sit 8th with 12 points from 9 games, Ipswich 14th with 11.
Disadvantages Why Bournemouth may not
- The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Bournemouth to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home and away: Ipswich are 2-1-1 at home, Bournemouth 1-1-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 63% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Ipswich won 26% of simulated matches. A 49% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Side by side
| BOU Bournemouth | IPS Ipswich | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | League | Premier League |
| 8th, 12 pts | Table | 14th, 11 pts |
| 1.56 | Goals for / game | 1.56 |
| 1.44 | Goals against / game | 2.00 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target / game | 4.1 |
| 3.6 | On target against / game | 5.2 |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 2-2-1 | Home W-D-L | 2-1-1 |
| 1-1-2 | Away W-D-L | 1-1-3 |
| W-W-W-W-W | Last five | L-W-L-D-D |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 2 meetings
- Apr 2, 2025 · EPL Bournemouth 1-2 Ipswich
- Dec 8, 2024 · EPL Ipswich 1-2 Bournemouth
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat