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HUL

Hull @ Arsenal

Premier League · · Emirates Stadium

ARS

Hull 2-5-2 · 11 pts · 11th Premier League · Form LDLDD
Arsenal 8-0-1 · 24 pts · 1st Premier League · Form WWDWW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ARSArsenal
82% to win

Draw 12% · Hull 6%

ModelHUL 6%ARS 82%
MarketHUL 6%ARS 82%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
ARS win-65082% · -462
Draw+70012% · +743
HUL win+15006% · +1587
ARS or draw–94%
HUL or draw–18%
HandicapARS -2.5 (+120)ARS 44%
Total 3.5O +125 · U -160Over 54%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
ARS 3.1, HUL 0.8
Likeliest scores (ARS first)
3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (8%)
Both teams score
52%
Clean sheet
ARS 46% · HUL 5%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Arsenal can win

  1. Form: Arsenal took 13 points from their last five (W-W-D-W-W), Hull 3 (L-D-L-D-D).
  2. Goal difference: Arsenal are +1.00 a game this season (1.56 scored, 0.56 conceded); Hull +0.11.
  3. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Arsenal about 1.39 goals a game stronger than Hull before home field.
  4. Home and away: Arsenal are 4-0-0 at home, Hull 1-1-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. Shots on target: Arsenal out-shoot opponents by +1.6 on target a game, Hull by -1.6. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  6. Clean sheets: Arsenal kept one in 67% of games, Hull in 33%.
  7. Defense: Arsenal concede 0.56 a game, Hull 1.11.

Disadvantages Why Arsenal may not

  1. The draw: 11% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Arsenal to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 34% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Hull won 6% of simulated matches. A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

HUL HullARS Arsenal
Premier LeagueLeaguePremier League
11th, 11 ptsTable1st, 24 pts
1.22Goals for / game1.56
1.11Goals against / game0.56
3.2Shots on target / game4.2
4.8On target against / game2.7
33%Clean sheets67%
1-4-0Home W-D-L4-0-0
1-1-2Away W-D-L4-0-1
L-D-L-D-DLast fiveW-W-D-W-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Feb 11, 2017 · EPL Arsenal 2-0 Hull
  • Sep 17, 2016 · EPL Hull 1-4 Arsenal
  • May 4, 2015 · EPL Hull 1-3 Arsenal
  • Oct 18, 2014 · EPL Arsenal 2-2 Hull
  • Apr 20, 2014 · EPL Hull 0-3 Arsenal

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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