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Chelsea @ Sunderland

Premier League · · Stadium of Light

SUN

Chelsea 5-1-3 · 16 pts · 4th Premier League · Form LWWLW
Sunderland 1-2-6 · 5 pts · 20th Premier League · Form WLDDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
CHEChelsea
47% to win

Draw 26% · Sunderland 27%

ModelCHE 47%SUN 27%
MarketCHE 47%SUN 27%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 47% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
SUN win+25027% · +271
Draw+26526% · +287
CHE winEVEN47% · +112
SUN or draw–53%
CHE or draw–73%
HandicapSUN +0.5 (-130)SUN 53%
Total 2.5O -125 · U -105Over 56%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
SUN 1.2, CHE 1.7
Likeliest scores (SUN first)
1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%)
Both teams score
60%
Clean sheet
SUN 18% · CHE 28%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Chelsea can win

  1. Goal difference: Chelsea are +0.44 a game this season (2.11 scored, 1.67 conceded); Sunderland -1.11.
  2. Scoring: Chelsea score 2.11 goals a game, Sunderland 0.78.
  3. The table: Chelsea sit 4th with 16 points from 9 games, Sunderland 20th with 5.
  4. Form: Chelsea took 9 points from their last five (L-W-W-L-W), Sunderland 5 (W-L-D-D-L).
  5. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Chelsea about 0.44 goals a game stronger than Sunderland before home field.
  6. Home and away: Sunderland are 1-1-2 at home, Chelsea 2-0-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  7. Expected goals: Chelsea average 1.7 goals in the simulations, Sunderland 1.2.

Disadvantages Why Chelsea may not

  1. The draw: 27% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Chelsea to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 63% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: Sunderland won 27% of simulated matches. A 47% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

CHE ChelseaSUN Sunderland
Premier LeagueLeaguePremier League
4th, 16 ptsTable20th, 5 pts
2.11Goals for / game0.78
1.67Goals against / game1.89
5.8Shots on target / game3.8
5.6On target against / game3.8
22%Clean sheets22%
3-1-1Home W-D-L1-1-2
2-0-2Away W-D-L0-1-4
L-W-W-L-WLast fiveW-L-D-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • May 24, 2026 · EPL Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea
  • Oct 25, 2025 · EPL Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland
  • May 21, 2017 · EPL Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland
  • Dec 14, 2016 · EPL Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea
  • May 7, 2016 · EPL Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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