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AVL

Aston Villa @ Man United

Premier League · · Old Trafford

MAN

Aston Villa 3-3-3 · 12 pts · 10th Premier League · Form WWWDL
Man United 1-4-4 · 7 pts · 17th Premier League · Form DLLLW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
MANManchester United
43% to win

Draw 26% · Aston Villa 31%

ModelAVL 31%MAN 43%
MarketAVL 31%MAN 43%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 43% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
MAN win+12043% · +134
Draw+26526% · +288
AVL win+20031% · +219
MAN or draw–69%
AVL or draw–57%
HandicapMAN -0.5 (+110)MAN 43%
Total 2.5O -170 · U +130Over 58%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
MAN 1.6, AVL 1.4
Likeliest scores (MAN first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
61%
Clean sheet
MAN 25% · AVL 19%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Man United can win

  1. Shots on target: Man United out-shoot opponents by +0.1 on target a game, Aston Villa by -1.8. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Man United average 1.6 goals in the simulations, Aston Villa 1.4.
  4. Clean sheet: Man United kept Aston Villa scoreless in 25% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Man United 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Man United won 43% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Man United may not

  1. Form: Aston Villa took 10 points from their last five (W-W-W-D-L), Man United 4 (D-L-L-L-W).
  2. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Man United to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  3. Clean sheets: Aston Villa kept one in 22% of games, Man United in 0%.
  4. Home and away: Man United are 1-1-2 at home, Aston Villa 2-1-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. The table: Aston Villa sit 10th with 12 points from 9 games, Man United 17th with 7.
  6. Goal difference: Aston Villa are -0.33 a game this season (1.11 scored, 1.44 conceded); Man United -0.56.
  7. Fine margins: 63% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AVL Aston VillaMAN Man United
Premier LeagueLeaguePremier League
10th, 12 ptsTable17th, 7 pts
1.11Goals for / game1.11
1.44Goals against / game1.67
3.0Shots on target / game5.0
4.8On target against / game4.9
22%Clean sheets0%
1-2-2Home W-D-L1-1-2
2-1-1Away W-D-L0-3-2
W-W-W-D-LLast fiveD-L-L-L-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Mar 15, 2026 · EPL Man United 3-1 Aston Villa
  • Dec 21, 2025 · EPL Aston Villa 2-1 Man United
  • May 25, 2025 · EPL Man United 2-0 Aston Villa
  • Oct 6, 2024 · EPL Aston Villa 0-0 Man United
  • Feb 11, 2024 · EPL Aston Villa 1-2 Man United

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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