Newcastle 3-2-4 · 11 pts · 13th Premier League · Form WLLWL
Fulham 2-3-4 · 9 pts · 15th Premier League · Form DLWWD
Game day
KickoffDraw 26% · Newcastle 28%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| FUL win | +105 | 46% · +118 |
| Draw | +260 | 26% · +283 |
| NEW win | +235 | 28% · +256 |
| FUL or draw | – | 72% |
| NEW or draw | – | 54% |
| Handicap | FUL -0.5 (-105) | FUL 46% |
| Total 2.5 | O -160 · U +125 | Over 55% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- FUL 1.6, NEW 1.2
- Likeliest scores (FUL first)
- 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%)
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Clean sheet
- FUL 30% · NEW 20%
Advantages Why Fulham can win
- Shots on target: Fulham out-shoot opponents by +0.8 on target a game, Newcastle by -1.9. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Defense: Fulham concede 1.22 a game, Newcastle 1.67.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: Fulham average 1.6 goals in the simulations, Newcastle 1.2.
- Clean sheet: Fulham kept Newcastle scoreless in 30% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: Fulham 46%, draw 26%, Newcastle 28% on DraftKings's odds.
- Simulation: Fulham won 46% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why Fulham may not
- The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Fulham to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Scoring: Newcastle score 1.33 goals a game, Fulham 1.00.
- Home and away: Fulham are 1-1-2 at home, Newcastle 2-0-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Fine margins: 63% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Newcastle won 28% of simulated matches. A 46% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| NEW Newcastle | FUL Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | League | Premier League |
| 13th, 11 pts | Table | 15th, 9 pts |
| 1.33 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game | 1.22 |
| 3.2 | Shots on target / game | 4.6 |
| 5.1 | On target against / game | 3.8 |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 1-2-2 | Home W-D-L | 1-1-2 |
| 2-0-2 | Away W-D-L | 1-2-2 |
| W-L-L-W-L | Last five | D-L-W-W-D |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- May 24, 2026 · EPL Fulham 2-0 Newcastle
- Oct 25, 2025 · EPL Newcastle 2-1 Fulham
- Feb 1, 2025 · EPL Newcastle 1-2 Fulham
- Sep 21, 2024 · EPL Fulham 3-1 Newcastle
- Apr 6, 2024 · EPL Fulham 0-1 Newcastle
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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