Coventry 3-0-6 · 9 pts · 16th Premier League · Form WWLLW
Everton 3-4-2 · 13 pts · 7th Premier League · Form WDLLW
Game day
KickoffDraw 24% · Coventry 21%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| EVE win | -140 | 56% · -125 |
| Draw | +300 | 24% · +320 |
| COV win | +360 | 21% · +383 |
| EVE or draw | – | 79% |
| COV or draw | – | 44% |
| Handicap | EVE -0.5 (-155) | EVE 56% |
| Total 2.5 | O -145 · U +115 | Over 57% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- EVE 1.9, COV 1.1
- Likeliest scores (EVE first)
- 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%)
- Both teams score
- 57%
- Clean sheet
- EVE 34% · COV 15%
Advantages Why Everton can win
- Goal difference: Everton are +0.00 a game this season (1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded); Coventry -0.78.
- Defense: Everton concede 1.00 a game, Coventry 1.78.
- Clean sheets: Everton kept one in 44% of games, Coventry in 11%.
- Home and away: Everton are 2-1-1 at home, Coventry 1-0-3 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- The table: Everton sit 7th with 13 points from 9 games, Coventry 16th with 9.
- Shots on target: Everton out-shoot opponents by +0.8 on target a game, Coventry by -1.0. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Everton about 0.37 goals a game stronger than Coventry before home field.
Disadvantages Why Everton may not
- The draw: 24% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Everton to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Rest: Everton played 4 days before this (Premier League); Coventry have had 6.
- Fine margins: 59% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Coventry won 21% of simulated matches. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| COV Coventry | EVE Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | League | Premier League |
| 16th, 9 pts | Table | 7th, 13 pts |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.78 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 3.2 | Shots on target / game | 4.8 |
| 4.2 | On target against / game | 4.0 |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 44% |
| 2-0-3 | Home W-D-L | 2-1-1 |
| 1-0-3 | Away W-D-L | 1-3-1 |
| W-W-L-L-W | Last five | W-D-L-L-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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