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Liverpool @ C Palace

Premier League · · Selhurst Park

CRY

Liverpool 4-3-2 · 15 pts · 5th Premier League · Form WWWWL
C Palace 2-1-6 · 7 pts · 18th Premier League · Form LLDLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
LIVLiverpool
60% to win

Draw 22% · C Palace 18%

ModelLIV 60%CRY 18%
MarketLIV 60%CRY 18%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
CRY win+42518% · +453
Draw+33022% · +353
LIV win-17060% · -149
CRY or draw–40%
LIV or draw–82%
HandicapCRY +0.5 (+125)CRY 40%
Total 3.5O +135 · U -175Over 39%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
CRY 1.1, LIV 2.1
Likeliest scores (CRY first)
1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%)
Both teams score
60%
Clean sheet
CRY 12% · LIV 33%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Liverpool can win

  1. Goal difference: Liverpool are +0.22 a game this season (1.22 scored, 1.00 conceded); C Palace -1.33.
  2. Form: Liverpool took 12 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-L), C Palace 1 (L-L-D-L-L).
  3. Defense: Liverpool concede 1.00 a game, C Palace 2.33.
  4. Home and away: C Palace are 1-0-3 at home, Liverpool 3-1-0 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  5. Shots on target: Liverpool out-shoot opponents by +1.2 on target a game, C Palace by -2.6. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  6. The table: Liverpool sit 5th with 15 points from 9 games, C Palace 18th with 7.
  7. Clean sheets: Liverpool kept one in 44% of games, C Palace in 11%.

Disadvantages Why Liverpool may not

  1. The draw: 23% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Liverpool to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 56% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: C Palace won 18% of simulated matches. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

LIV LiverpoolCRY C Palace
Premier LeagueLeaguePremier League
5th, 15 ptsTable18th, 7 pts
1.22Goals for / game1.00
1.00Goals against / game2.33
4.3Shots on target / game3.4
3.1On target against / game6.0
44%Clean sheets11%
1-2-2Home W-D-L1-0-3
3-1-0Away W-D-L1-1-3
W-W-W-W-LLast fiveL-L-D-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Apr 25, 2026 · EPL Liverpool 3-1 C Palace
  • Sep 27, 2025 · EPL C Palace 2-1 Liverpool
  • May 25, 2025 · EPL Liverpool 1-1 C Palace
  • Oct 5, 2024 · EPL C Palace 0-1 Liverpool
  • Apr 14, 2024 · EPL Liverpool 0-1 C Palace

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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