Brentford 3-5-1 · 14 pts · 6th Premier League · Form WDLDW
Brighton 6-1-2 · 19 pts · 3rd Premier League · Form WWDLW
Game day
KickoffDraw 25% · Brentford 26%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| BHA win | -110 | 49% · +103 |
| Draw | +275 | 25% · +299 |
| BRE win | +265 | 26% · +289 |
| BHA or draw | – | 74% |
| BRE or draw | – | 51% |
| Handicap | BHA -0.5 (-120) | BHA 49% |
| Total 2.5 | O -175 · U +135 | Over 58% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- BHA 1.8, BRE 1.2
- Likeliest scores (BHA first)
- 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%)
- Both teams score
- 60%
- Clean sheet
- BHA 29% · BRE 17%
Advantages Why Brighton can win
- Goal difference: Brighton are +1.89 a game this season (2.67 scored, 0.78 conceded); Brentford +0.78.
- Scoring: Brighton score 2.67 goals a game, Brentford 1.78.
- Home and away: Brighton are 3-1-0 at home, Brentford 0-4-0 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Clean sheets: Brighton kept one in 67% of games, Brentford in 33%.
- Shots on target: Brighton out-shoot opponents by +1.4 on target a game, Brentford by -0.2. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.16 goals a game in the Premier League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Brighton about 0.16 goals a game stronger than Brentford before home field.
Disadvantages Why Brighton may not
- The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Brighton to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 62% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Brentford won 26% of simulated matches. A 49% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| BRE Brentford | BHA Brighton | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | League | Premier League |
| 6th, 14 pts | Table | 3rd, 19 pts |
| 1.78 | Goals for / game | 2.67 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 0.78 |
| 4.0 | Shots on target / game | 5.1 |
| 4.2 | On target against / game | 3.7 |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 67% |
| 3-1-1 | Home W-D-L | 3-1-0 |
| 0-4-0 | Away W-D-L | 3-0-2 |
| W-D-L-D-W | Last five | W-W-D-L-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Feb 21, 2026 · EPL Brentford 0-2 Brighton
- Nov 22, 2025 · EPL Brighton 2-1 Brentford
- Apr 19, 2025 · EPL Brentford 4-2 Brighton
- Dec 27, 2024 · EPL Brighton 0-0 Brentford
- Apr 3, 2024 · EPL Brentford 0-0 Brighton
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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