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NAP

Napoli @ FC Porto

Champions League · · Estádio do Dragão

FCP

Napoli Form LWDWL
FC Porto Form WLLWW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
FCPFC Porto
50% to win

Draw 25% · Napoli 24%

ModelNAP 24%FCP 50%
MarketNAP 24%FCP 50%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
FCP win-11050% · -100
Draw+27525% · +293
NAP win+29024% · +308
FCP or draw–76%
NAP or draw–50%
HandicapFCP -0.5 (-120)FCP 50%
Total 2.5O -135 · U +110Over 54%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
FCP 1.7, NAP 1.1
Likeliest scores (FCP first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%)
Both teams score
57%
Clean sheet
FCP 32% · NAP 17%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why FC Porto can win

  1. Goal difference: FC Porto are +2.10 a game this season (2.50 scored, 0.40 conceded); Napoli +0.40.
  2. Home and away: FC Porto are 5-0-0 at home, Napoli 2-1-3 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  3. Defense: FC Porto concede 0.40 a game, Napoli 1.30.
  4. Scoring: FC Porto score 2.50 goals a game, Napoli 1.70.
  5. Shots on target: FC Porto out-shoot opponents by +4.4 on target a game, Napoli by +1.6. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  6. Clean sheets: FC Porto kept one in 60% of games, Napoli in 30%.
  7. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make FC Porto about 0.48 goals a game stronger than Napoli before home field.

Disadvantages Why FC Porto may not

  1. The draw: 26% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing FC Porto to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. League strength: in European matches since 2019, Serie A clubs have rated about 0.37 goals a game stronger than Primeira Liga clubs.
  3. Fine margins: 62% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: Napoli won 24% of simulated matches. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

NAP NapoliFCP FC Porto
Serie ALeaguePrimeira Liga
–Table–
1.70Goals for / game2.50
1.30Goals against / game0.40
5.6Shots on target / game6.8
4.0On target against / game2.4
30%Clean sheets60%
2-1-1Home W-D-L5-0-0
2-1-3Away W-D-L5-0-0
L-W-D-W-LLast fiveW-L-L-W-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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