Sabah Form LWL
Viking FK Form DWLWL
Game day
KickoffDraw 18% · Sabah 15%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| VFK win | -240 | 67% · -205 |
| Draw | +425 | 18% · +451 |
| SAB win | +550 | 15% · +583 |
| VFK or draw | – | 85% |
| SAB or draw | – | 33% |
| Handicap | VFK -1.5 (-110) | VFK 47% |
| Total 3.5 | O -120 · U -105 | Over 51% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- VFK 2.6, SAB 1.2
- Likeliest scores (VFK first)
- 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%), 3-1 (8%)
- Both teams score
- 65%
- Clean sheet
- VFK 31% · SAB 8%
Advantages Why Viking FK can win
- Goal difference: Viking FK are +1.52 a game this season (2.56 scored, 1.04 conceded); Sabah -1.00.
- Shots on target: Viking FK out-shoot opponents by +2.4 on target a game, Sabah by -5.7. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Scoring: Viking FK score 2.56 goals a game, Sabah 1.00.
- Defense: Viking FK concede 1.04 a game, Sabah 2.00.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Viking FK about 0.45 goals a game stronger than Sabah before home field.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- League strength: in European matches since 2019, Eliteserien clubs have rated about 0.11 goals a game stronger than their league clubs.
Disadvantages Why Viking FK may not
- The draw: 18% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Viking FK to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 48% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Sabah won 15% of simulated matches. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| SAB Sabah | VFK Viking FK | |
|---|---|---|
| – | League | Eliteserien |
| – | Table | – |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 2.56 |
| 2.00 | Goals against / game | 1.04 |
| 3.3 | Shots on target / game | 5.8 |
| 9.0 | On target against / game | 3.4 |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 28% |
| 1-0-1 | Home W-D-L | 12-0-0 |
| 0-0-1 | Away W-D-L | 7-2-4 |
| L-W-L | Last five | D-W-L-W-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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