Club Brugge Form WWWWW
PSV Form LLWDW
Game day
KickoffDraw 22% · Club Brugge 29%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| PSV win | -105 | 49% · +105 |
| Draw | +330 | 22% · +353 |
| BRU win | +225 | 29% · +242 |
| PSV or draw | – | 71% |
| BRU or draw | – | 51% |
| Handicap | PSV -0.5 (-115) | PSV 49% |
| Total 3.5 | O -120 · U -105 | Over 52% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- PSV 2.1, BRU 1.6
- Likeliest scores (PSV first)
- 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 71%
- Clean sheet
- PSV 20% · BRU 12%
Advantages Why PSV can win
- Scoring: PSV score 3.18 goals a game, Club Brugge 2.60.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: PSV average 2.1 goals in the simulations, Club Brugge 1.6.
- Clean sheet: PSV kept Club Brugge scoreless in 20% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: PSV 49%, draw 22%, Club Brugge 29% on DraftKings's odds.
- Simulation: PSV won 48% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why PSV may not
- Form: Club Brugge took 15 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-W), PSV 7 (L-L-W-D-W).
- Clean sheets: Club Brugge kept one in 50% of games, PSV in 18%.
- The draw: 22% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing PSV to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Defense: Club Brugge concede 0.80 a game, PSV 1.18.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Club Brugge about 0.15 goals a game stronger than PSV before home field.
- Fine margins: 57% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Upset odds: Club Brugge won 30% of simulated matches. A 49% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| BRU Club Brugge | PSV PSV | |
|---|---|---|
| Belgian Pro League | League | Eredivisie |
| – | Table | – |
| 2.60 | Goals for / game | 3.18 |
| 0.80 | Goals against / game | 1.18 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target / game | 7.3 |
| 3.4 | On target against / game | 4.5 |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 5-0-0 | Home W-D-L | 4-2-0 |
| 4-0-1 | Away W-D-L | 3-0-2 |
| W-W-W-W-W | Last five | L-L-W-D-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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