Betis 7-2-2 · 23 pts · 4th La Liga · Form WLWDW
Dortmund Form LDWWD
Game day
KickoffDraw 23% · Betis 22%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| DOR win | -140 | 55% · -124 |
| Draw | +320 | 23% · +343 |
| BET win | +330 | 22% · +353 |
| DOR or draw | – | 78% |
| BET or draw | – | 45% |
| Handicap | DOR -0.5 (-150) | DOR 55% |
| Total 3.5 | O +120 · U -150 | Over 42% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- DOR 2.1, BET 1.3
- Likeliest scores (DOR first)
- 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%)
- Both teams score
- 64%
- Clean sheet
- DOR 28% · BET 13%
Advantages Why Dortmund can win
- Goal difference: Dortmund are +1.00 a game this season (1.75 scored, 0.75 conceded); Betis +0.27.
- Defense: Dortmund concede 0.75 a game, Betis 1.36.
- Home and away: Dortmund are 3-1-0 at home, Betis 2-2-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Shots on target: Dortmund out-shoot opponents by +2.0 on target a game, Betis by +0.1. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Clean sheets: Dortmund kept one in 62% of games, Betis in 45%.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Dortmund about 0.21 goals a game stronger than Betis before home field.
Disadvantages Why Dortmund may not
- The draw: 23% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Dortmund to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 57% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Betis won 22% of simulated matches. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| BET Betis | DOR Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | League | Bundesliga |
| 4th, 23 pts | Table | – |
| 1.64 | Goals for / game | 1.75 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 0.75 |
| 5.9 | Shots on target / game | 5.2 |
| 5.8 | On target against / game | 3.2 |
| 45% | Clean sheets | 62% |
| 5-0-1 | Home W-D-L | 3-1-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Away W-D-L | 2-2-0 |
| W-L-W-D-W | Last five | L-D-W-W-D |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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