Como Form WWWWW
Lens Form LWLWL
Game day
KickoffDraw 24% · Lens 28%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| RCL win | +245 | 28% · +263 |
| Draw | +300 | 24% · +321 |
| COMO win | -105 | 49% · +105 |
| RCL or draw | – | 51% |
| COMO or draw | – | 72% |
| Handicap | RCL +0.5 (-125) | RCL 51% |
| Total 3.5 | O +135 · U -165 | Over 43% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- RCL 1.4, COMO 1.9
- Likeliest scores (RCL first)
- 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 65%
- Clean sheet
- RCL 15% · COMO 24%
Advantages Why Como can win
- Form: Como took 15 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-W), Lens 6 (L-W-L-W-L).
- Goal difference: Como are +1.00 a game this season (1.80 scored, 0.80 conceded); Lens +0.33.
- Defense: Como concede 0.80 a game, Lens 1.44.
- Shots on target: Como out-shoot opponents by +3.1 on target a game, Lens by +0.6. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Clean sheets: Como kept one in 30% of games, Lens in 0%.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Como about 0.36 goals a game stronger than Lens before home field.
- Expected goals: Como average 1.9 goals in the simulations, Lens 1.4.
Disadvantages Why Como may not
- The draw: 24% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Como to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 59% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Lens won 28% of simulated matches. A 49% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| COMO Como | RCL Lens | |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A | League | Ligue 1 |
| – | Table | – |
| 1.80 | Goals for / game | 1.78 |
| 0.80 | Goals against / game | 1.44 |
| 6.3 | Shots on target / game | 5.3 |
| 3.2 | On target against / game | 4.8 |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 3-1-0 | Home W-D-L | 3-0-1 |
| 4-1-1 | Away W-D-L | 1-1-3 |
| W-W-W-W-W | Last five | L-W-L-W-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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