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MNC

Man City @ RB Leipzig

Champions League · · Red Bull Arena

RBL

Man City 7-0-2 · 21 pts · 2nd Premier League · Form LWWLL
RB Leipzig Form WLLWW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
MNCManchester City
62% to win

Draw 19% · RB Leipzig 18%

ModelMNC 62%RBL 18%
MarketMNC 62%RBL 18%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
RBL win+42518% · +451
Draw+39019% · +414
MNC win-19062% · -166
RBL or draw–38%
MNC or draw–82%
HandicapRBL +1.5 (-165)RBL 58%
Total 3.5O -130 · U +105Over 51%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
RBL 1.3, MNC 2.4
Likeliest scores (RBL first)
1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%)
Both teams score
67%
Clean sheet
RBL 9% · MNC 27%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Man City can win

  1. League strength: in European matches since 2019, Premier League clubs have rated about 0.36 goals a game stronger than Bundesliga clubs.
  2. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Man City about 0.35 goals a game stronger than RB Leipzig before home field.
  3. Defense: Man City concede 1.11 a game, RB Leipzig 1.38.
  4. Shots on target: Man City out-shoot opponents by +1.8 on target a game, RB Leipzig by +0.8. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  5. Expected goals: Man City average 2.4 goals in the simulations, RB Leipzig 1.3.
  6. Clean sheet: Man City kept RB Leipzig scoreless in 27% of simulated matches.
  7. The betting market agrees: Man City 62%, draw 19%, RB Leipzig 18% on DraftKings's odds.

Disadvantages Why Man City may not

  1. Clean sheets: RB Leipzig kept one in 62% of games, Man City in 33%.
  2. Scoring: RB Leipzig score 2.75 goals a game, Man City 2.22.
  3. The draw: 20% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Man City to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  4. Goal difference: RB Leipzig are +1.38 a game this season (2.75 scored, 1.38 conceded); Man City +1.11.
  5. Home and away: RB Leipzig are 4-0-0 at home, Man City 3-0-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  6. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  7. Fine margins: 51% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MNC Man CityRBL RB Leipzig
Premier LeagueLeagueBundesliga
2nd, 21 ptsTable–
2.22Goals for / game2.75
1.11Goals against / game1.38
5.6Shots on target / game6.9
3.8On target against / game6.1
33%Clean sheets62%
4-0-1Home W-D-L4-0-0
3-0-1Away W-D-L1-0-3
L-W-W-L-LLast fiveW-L-L-W-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Nov 28, 2023 · UCL Man City 3-2 RB Leipzig
  • Oct 4, 2023 · UCL RB Leipzig 1-3 Man City
  • Mar 14, 2023 · UCL Man City 7-0 RB Leipzig
  • Feb 22, 2023 · UCL RB Leipzig 1-1 Man City
  • Dec 7, 2021 · UCL RB Leipzig 2-1 Man City

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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