Arsenal 8-0-1 · 24 pts · 1st Premier League · Form WWDWW
Slavia Prague Form LLLLD
Game day
KickoffDraw 16% · Slavia Prague 9%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| SLP win | +1000 | 9% · +1063 |
| Draw | +500 | 16% · +535 |
| ARS win | -400 | 76% · -311 |
| SLP or draw | – | 24% |
| ARS or draw | – | 91% |
| Handicap | SLP +1.5 (+105) | SLP 45% |
| Total 2.5 | O -155 · U +125 | Over 67% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- SLP 0.8, ARS 2.7
- Likeliest scores (SLP first)
- 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (9%)
- Both teams score
- 52%
- Clean sheet
- SLP 7% · ARS 44%
Advantages Why Arsenal can win
- Goal difference: Arsenal are +1.00 a game this season (1.56 scored, 0.56 conceded); Slavia Prague -1.70.
- Form: Arsenal took 13 points from their last five (W-W-D-W-W), Slavia Prague 1 (L-L-L-L-D).
- Defense: Arsenal concede 0.56 a game, Slavia Prague 2.40.
- Shots on target: Arsenal out-shoot opponents by +1.6 on target a game, Slavia Prague by -3.5. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Home and away: Slavia Prague are 0-1-3 at home, Arsenal 4-0-1 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Clean sheets: Arsenal kept one in 67% of games, Slavia Prague in 20%.
- League strength: in European matches since 2019, Premier League clubs have rated about 1.03 goals a game stronger than their league clubs.
Disadvantages Why Arsenal may not
- Rest: Arsenal played 3 days before this (Premier League); Slavia Prague have had 15.
- The draw: 16% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Arsenal to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 42% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Slavia Prague won 9% of simulated matches. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| ARS Arsenal | SLP Slavia Prague | |
|---|---|---|
| Premier League | League | – |
| 1st, 24 pts | Table | – |
| 1.56 | Goals for / game | 0.70 |
| 0.56 | Goals against / game | 2.40 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target / game | 3.6 |
| 2.7 | On target against / game | 7.1 |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 4-0-0 | Home W-D-L | 0-1-3 |
| 4-0-1 | Away W-D-L | 0-2-4 |
| W-W-D-W-W | Last five | L-L-L-L-D |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 3 meetings
- Nov 4, 2025 · UCL Slavia Prague 0-3 Arsenal
- Apr 15, 2021 · UEL Slavia Prague 0-4 Arsenal
- Apr 8, 2021 · UEL Arsenal 1-1 Slavia Prague
Your pick
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