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LIV

Liverpool @ Fenerbahce

Champions League · · Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium

FEN

Liverpool 4-3-2 · 15 pts · 5th Premier League · Form WWWWL
Fenerbahce Form LWDLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
LIVLiverpool
65% to win

Draw 19% · Fenerbahce 16%

ModelLIV 65%FEN 16%
MarketLIV 65%FEN 16%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
FEN win+50016% · +535
Draw+40019% · +429
LIV win-22565% · -189
FEN or draw–35%
LIV or draw–84%
HandicapFEN +1.5 (-140)FEN 56%
Total 3.5O -105 · U -115Over 50%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
FEN 1.2, LIV 2.5
Likeliest scores (FEN first)
1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 0-2 (8%)
Both teams score
64%
Clean sheet
FEN 9% · LIV 30%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Liverpool can win

  1. Form: Liverpool took 12 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-L), Fenerbahce 4 (L-W-D-L-L).
  2. League strength: in European matches since 2019, Premier League clubs have rated about 0.96 goals a game stronger than Super Lig clubs.
  3. Home and away: Fenerbahce are 3-0-2 at home, Liverpool 3-1-0 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  4. Expected goals: Liverpool average 2.5 goals in the simulations, Fenerbahce 1.2.
  5. Clean sheet: Liverpool kept Fenerbahce scoreless in 30% of simulated matches.
  6. The betting market agrees: Liverpool 65%, draw 19%, Fenerbahce 16% on DraftKings's odds.
  7. Simulation: Liverpool won 65% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Liverpool may not

  1. Goal difference: Fenerbahce are +1.40 a game this season (2.40 scored, 1.00 conceded); Liverpool +0.22.
  2. Scoring: Fenerbahce score 2.40 goals a game, Liverpool 1.22.
  3. The draw: 19% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Liverpool to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  4. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  5. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Fenerbahce about 0.19 goals a game stronger than Liverpool before home field.
  6. Fine margins: 49% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  7. Upset odds: Fenerbahce won 16% of simulated matches. A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

LIV LiverpoolFEN Fenerbahce
Premier LeagueLeagueSuper Lig
5th, 15 ptsTable–
1.22Goals for / game2.40
1.00Goals against / game1.00
4.3Shots on target / game6.7
3.1On target against / game4.7
44%Clean sheets50%
1-2-2Home W-D-L3-0-2
3-1-0Away W-D-L2-1-2
W-W-W-W-LLast fiveL-W-D-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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