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RMA

Real Madrid @ AEK Athens

Champions League · · OPAP Arena

AEK

Real Madrid 9-0-2 · 27 pts · 3rd La Liga · Form WWWWW
AEK Athens Form WLLWL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
RMAReal Madrid
79% to win

Draw 13% · AEK Athens 8%

ModelRMA 79%AEK 8%
MarketRMA 79%AEK 8%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
AEK win+11008% · +1160
Draw+65013% · +688
RMA win-50079% · -385
AEK or draw–21%
RMA or draw–92%
HandicapAEK +2.5 (-170)AEK 58%
Total 3.5O -145 · U +115Over 60%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
AEK 1.0, RMA 3.2
Likeliest scores (AEK first)
1-3 (8%), 0-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
61%
Clean sheet
AEK 4% · RMA 37%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Real Madrid can win

  1. Form: Real Madrid took 15 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-W), AEK Athens 6 (W-L-L-W-L).
  2. League strength: in European matches since 2019, La Liga clubs have rated about 0.86 goals a game stronger than Super League Greece clubs.
  3. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Real Madrid about 0.12 goals a game stronger than AEK Athens before home field.
  4. Expected goals: Real Madrid average 3.2 goals in the simulations, AEK Athens 1.0.
  5. Clean sheet: Real Madrid kept AEK Athens scoreless in 37% of simulated matches.
  6. The betting market agrees: Real Madrid 79%, draw 13%, AEK Athens 8% on DraftKings's odds.
  7. Simulation: Real Madrid won 79% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Real Madrid may not

  1. Goal difference: AEK Athens are +2.00 a game this season (2.62 scored, 0.62 conceded); Real Madrid +1.64.
  2. Home and away: AEK Athens are 4-0-0 at home, Real Madrid 4-0-2 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  3. The draw: 13% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Real Madrid to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  4. Clean sheets: AEK Athens kept one in 50% of games, Real Madrid in 27%.
  5. Shots on target: AEK Athens out-shoot opponents by +3.9 on target a game, Real Madrid by +2.7. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  6. Defense: AEK Athens concede 0.62 a game, Real Madrid 0.91.
  7. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.27 goals a game in the Champions League, by our ratings of every match since 2012.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

RMA Real MadridAEK AEK Athens
La LigaLeagueSuper League Greece
3rd, 27 ptsTable–
2.55Goals for / game2.62
0.91Goals against / game0.62
7.0Shots on target / game6.5
4.3On target against / game2.6
27%Clean sheets50%
5-0-0Home W-D-L4-0-0
4-0-2Away W-D-L1-2-1
W-W-W-W-WLast fiveW-L-L-W-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

These clubs haven't met in the matches we have (league games since 2012, European games since 2019).

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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