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VAN

Vancouver @ CF Montréal

MLS · · Stade Saputo

MTL

Vancouver 18-7-8 · 61 pts · 2nd MLS · Form DWLWW
CF Montréal 6-8-19 · 26 pts · 29th MLS · Form LDLLD

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
VANVancouver Whitecaps
56% to win

Draw 22% · CF Montréal 22%

ModelVAN 56%MTL 22%
MarketVAN 56%MTL 22%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
MTL win+32022% · +358
Draw+31022% · +347
VAN win-15556% · -126
MTL or draw–44%
VAN or draw–78%
HandicapMTL +0.5 (+115)MTL 44%
Total 3.5O EVEN · U -135Over 44%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
MTL 1.3, VAN 2.1
Likeliest scores (MTL first)
1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%)
Both teams score
64%
Clean sheet
MTL 11% · VAN 28%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Vancouver can win

  1. Goal difference: Vancouver are +1.15 a game this season (2.18 scored, 1.03 conceded); CF Montréal -0.91.
  2. The table: Vancouver sit 2nd with 61 points from 33 games, CF Montréal 29th with 26.
  3. Form: Vancouver took 10 points from their last five (D-W-L-W-W), CF Montréal 2 (L-D-L-L-D).
  4. Scoring: Vancouver score 2.18 goals a game, CF Montréal 1.12.
  5. Defense: Vancouver concede 1.03 a game, CF Montréal 2.03.
  6. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Vancouver about 0.94 goals a game stronger than CF Montréal before home field.
  7. Shots on target: Vancouver out-shoot opponents by +2.3 on target a game, CF Montréal by -0.4. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.

Disadvantages Why Vancouver may not

  1. The draw: 22% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Vancouver to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 57% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: CF Montréal won 21% of simulated matches. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

VAN VancouverMTL CF Montréal
MLSLeagueMLS
2nd, 61 ptsTable29th, 26 pts
2.18Goals for / game1.12
1.03Goals against / game2.03
6.0Shots on target / game4.5
3.6On target against / game4.9
36%Clean sheets12%
11-2-4Home W-D-L4-5-7
7-5-4Away W-D-L2-3-12
D-W-L-W-WLast fiveL-D-L-L-D

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Mar 8, 2025 · MLS Vancouver 2-0 CF Montréal
  • Jul 6, 2024 · MLS CF Montréal 1-1 Vancouver
  • Apr 1, 2023 · MLS Vancouver 5-0 CF Montréal
  • Apr 16, 2022 · MLS CF Montréal 2-1 Vancouver
  • May 8, 2021 · MLS Vancouver 2-0 CF Montréal

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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