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CLB

Columbus @ Chicago

MLS · · SeatGeek Stadium

CHI

Columbus 13-5-15 · 44 pts · 14th MLS · Form WWWWW
Chicago 16-7-10 · 55 pts · 5th MLS · Form LLWDW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
CHIChicago Fire FC
47% to win

Draw 24% · Columbus 29%

ModelCLB 29%CHI 47%
MarketCLB 29%CHI 47%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 47% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
CHI win-10547% · +114
Draw+28024% · +317
CLB win+21029% · +240
CHI or draw–71%
CLB or draw–53%
HandicapCHI -0.5 (-110)CHI 47%
Total 3.5O +110 · U -145Over 43%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
CHI 1.9, CLB 1.5
Likeliest scores (CHI first)
1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%)
Both teams score
65%
Clean sheet
CHI 24% · CLB 15%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Chicago can win

  1. The table: Chicago sit 5th with 55 points from 33 games, Columbus 14th with 44.
  2. Home and away: Chicago are 9-2-5 at home, Columbus 4-3-9 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  3. Shots on target: Chicago out-shoot opponents by +0.8 on target a game, Columbus by -0.2. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  4. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  5. Expected goals: Chicago average 1.9 goals in the simulations, Columbus 1.5.
  6. Clean sheet: Chicago kept Columbus scoreless in 24% of simulated matches.
  7. The betting market agrees: Chicago 47%, draw 24%, Columbus 29% on DraftKings's odds.

Disadvantages Why Chicago may not

  1. Form: Columbus took 15 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-W), Chicago 7 (L-L-W-D-W).
  2. The draw: 24% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Chicago to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  3. Fine margins: 60% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: Columbus won 29% of simulated matches. A 47% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

CLB ColumbusCHI Chicago
MLSLeagueMLS
14th, 44 ptsTable5th, 55 pts
1.67Goals for / game1.85
1.48Goals against / game1.52
4.5Shots on target / game5.2
4.7On target against / game4.4
24%Clean sheets21%
9-2-6Home W-D-L9-2-5
4-3-9Away W-D-L7-5-5
W-W-W-W-WLast fiveL-L-W-D-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Mar 7, 2026 · MLS Columbus 0-0 Chicago
  • Sep 27, 2025 · MLS Chicago 2-0 Columbus
  • Feb 22, 2025 · MLS Columbus 4-2 Chicago
  • May 18, 2024 · MLS Chicago 1-3 Columbus
  • Mar 9, 2024 · MLS Columbus 2-1 Chicago

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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