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NYC

NYCFC @ D.C. United

MLS · · Audi Field

DC

NYCFC 9-12-12 · 39 pts · 22nd MLS · Form LDDWD
D.C. United 7-12-14 · 33 pts · 28th MLS · Form LLLLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
NYCNew York City FC
42% to win

Draw 26% · D.C. United 32%

ModelNYC 42%DC 32%
MarketNYC 42%DC 32%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 42% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
DC win+18532% · +211
Draw+25026% · +282
NYC win+12042% · +140
DC or draw–58%
NYC or draw–68%
HandicapDC +0.5 (-165)DC 58%
Total 2.5O -165 · U +125Over 57%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
DC 1.4, NYC 1.6
Likeliest scores (DC first)
1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%)
Both teams score
60%
Clean sheet
DC 20% · NYC 25%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why NYCFC can win

  1. Goal difference: NYCFC are +0.09 a game this season (1.45 scored, 1.36 conceded); D.C. United -0.64.
  2. Form: NYCFC took 6 points from their last five (L-D-D-W-D), D.C. United 0 (L-L-L-L-L).
  3. Defense: NYCFC concede 1.36 a game, D.C. United 1.82.
  4. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make NYCFC about 0.42 goals a game stronger than D.C. United before home field.
  5. The table: NYCFC sit 22nd with 39 points from 33 games, D.C. United 28th with 33.
  6. Scoring: NYCFC score 1.45 goals a game, D.C. United 1.18.
  7. Expected goals: NYCFC average 1.6 goals in the simulations, D.C. United 1.4.

Disadvantages Why NYCFC may not

  1. The draw: 27% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing NYCFC to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Fine margins: 64% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  4. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  5. Upset odds: D.C. United won 32% of simulated matches. A 42% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

NYC NYCFCDC D.C. United
MLSLeagueMLS
22nd, 39 ptsTable28th, 33 pts
1.45Goals for / game1.18
1.36Goals against / game1.82
4.7Shots on target / game4.3
4.7On target against / game5.2
15%Clean sheets18%
5-6-6Home W-D-L5-5-6
4-6-6Away W-D-L2-7-8
L-D-D-W-DLast fiveL-L-L-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • May 3, 2026 · MLS NYCFC 0-2 D.C. United
  • Aug 30, 2025 · MLS NYCFC 1-2 D.C. United
  • May 14, 2025 · MLS D.C. United 0-0 NYCFC
  • Sep 14, 2024 · MLS D.C. United 1-1 NYCFC
  • Apr 20, 2024 · MLS NYCFC 2-0 D.C. United

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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