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NSH

Nashville @ Cincinnati

MLS · · TQL Stadium

CIN

Nashville 22-8-3 · 74 pts · 1st MLS · Form WDWDW
Cincinnati 12-10-11 · 46 pts · 13th MLS · Form LWWDW

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
CINFC Cincinnati
39% to win

Draw 25% · Nashville 36%

ModelNSH 36%CIN 39%
MarketNSH 36%CIN 39%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 39% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
CIN win+13539% · +156
Draw+27025% · +303
NSH win+15536% · +177
CIN or draw–64%
NSH or draw–61%
HandicapCIN -0.5 (+125)CIN 39%
Total 3.5O +105 · U -140Over 40%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
CIN 1.7, NSH 1.6
Likeliest scores (CIN first)
1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
65%
Clean sheet
CIN 21% · NSH 19%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Cincinnati can win

  1. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  2. Expected goals: Cincinnati average 1.7 goals in the simulations, Nashville 1.6.
  3. Clean sheet: Cincinnati kept Nashville scoreless in 21% of simulated matches.
  4. The betting market agrees: Cincinnati 39%, draw 25%, Nashville 36% on DraftKings's odds.
  5. Simulation: Cincinnati won 39% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Cincinnati may not

  1. Goal difference: Nashville are +1.33 a game this season (2.09 scored, 0.76 conceded); Cincinnati -0.18.
  2. Defense: Nashville concede 0.76 a game, Cincinnati 2.21.
  3. Clean sheets: Nashville kept one in 48% of games, Cincinnati in 12%.
  4. The table: Nashville sit 1st with 74 points from 33 games, Cincinnati 13th with 46.
  5. The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Cincinnati to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  6. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Nashville about 0.44 goals a game stronger than Cincinnati before home field.
  7. Shots on target: Nashville out-shoot opponents by +1.7 on target a game, Cincinnati by +0.4. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

NSH NashvilleCIN Cincinnati
MLSLeagueMLS
1st, 74 ptsTable13th, 46 pts
2.09Goals for / game2.03
0.76Goals against / game2.21
5.2Shots on target / game5.7
3.5On target against / game5.3
48%Clean sheets12%
15-2-0Home W-D-L9-3-4
7-6-3Away W-D-L3-7-7
W-D-W-D-WLast fiveL-W-W-D-W

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Aug 29, 2026 · MLS Nashville 4-0 Cincinnati
  • Sep 13, 2025 · MLS Cincinnati 2-1 Nashville
  • Mar 29, 2025 · MLS Nashville 1-2 Cincinnati
  • Sep 21, 2024 · MLS Nashville 2-2 Cincinnati
  • May 29, 2024 · MLS Cincinnati 0-2 Nashville

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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