Charlotte 15-8-10 · 53 pts · 7th MLS · Form LDLWW
Inter Miami 16-11-6 · 59 pts · 3rd MLS · Form WWLDW
Game day
KickoffDraw 17% · Charlotte 15%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| MIA win | -280 | 67% · -206 |
| Draw | +425 | 17% · +474 |
| CLT win | +500 | 15% · +556 |
| MIA or draw | – | 85% |
| CLT or draw | – | 33% |
| Handicap | MIA -1.5 (-120) | MIA 47% |
| Total 3.5 | O -165 · U +125 | Over 56% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- MIA 2.7, CLT 1.3
- Likeliest scores (MIA first)
- 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 68%
- Clean sheet
- MIA 28% · CLT 6%
Advantages Why Inter Miami can win
- Shots on target: Inter Miami out-shoot opponents by +1.4 on target a game, Charlotte by -1.2. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Scoring: Inter Miami score 2.33 goals a game, Charlotte 1.91.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Inter Miami about 0.33 goals a game stronger than Charlotte before home field.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: Inter Miami average 2.7 goals in the simulations, Charlotte 1.3.
- Clean sheet: Inter Miami kept Charlotte scoreless in 28% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: Inter Miami 67%, draw 17%, Charlotte 15% on DraftKings's odds.
Disadvantages Why Inter Miami may not
- The draw: 18% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Inter Miami to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 46% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Charlotte won 15% of simulated matches. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.
Loading…
Sign in or create a free account to ask.
AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Side by side
| CLT Charlotte | MIA Inter Miami | |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | League | MLS |
| 7th, 53 pts | Table | 3rd, 59 pts |
| 1.91 | Goals for / game | 2.33 |
| 1.45 | Goals against / game | 1.70 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target / game | 5.9 |
| 6.0 | On target against / game | 4.5 |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 10-4-3 | Home W-D-L | 6-8-2 |
| 5-4-7 | Away W-D-L | 10-3-4 |
| L-D-L-W-W | Last five | W-W-L-D-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Mar 14, 2026 · MLS Charlotte 0-0 Inter Miami
- Sep 13, 2025 · MLS Charlotte 3-0 Inter Miami
- Mar 9, 2025 · MLS Inter Miami 1-0 Charlotte
- Sep 28, 2024 · MLS Inter Miami 1-1 Charlotte
- Jul 3, 2024 · MLS Charlotte 1-2 Inter Miami
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat