Atlanta 9-6-18 · 33 pts · 27th MLS · Form WLLLW
Red Bull NY 11-6-16 · 39 pts · 24th MLS · Form LLWLL
Game day
KickoffDraw 23% · Atlanta 28%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| RBNY win | – | 50% · +102 |
| Draw | – | 23% · +338 |
| ATL win | – | 28% · +263 |
| RBNY or draw | – | 72% |
| ATL or draw | – | 50% |
| Total 2.5 | – | Over 68% |
No betting line posted yet; books usually post soccer lines several days ahead. With no line, the chances are our own ratings. Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- RBNY 2.0, ATL 1.5
- Likeliest scores (RBNY first)
- 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 68%
- Clean sheet
- RBNY 22% · ATL 13%
Advantages Why Red Bull NY can win
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: Red Bull NY average 2.0 goals in the simulations, Atlanta 1.5.
- Clean sheet: Red Bull NY kept Atlanta scoreless in 22% of simulated matches.
- Simulation: Red Bull NY won 49% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why Red Bull NY may not
- The draw: 23% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Red Bull NY to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 58% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Atlanta won 28% of simulated matches. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| ATL Atlanta | RBNY Red Bull NY | |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | League | MLS |
| 27th, 33 pts | Table | 24th, 39 pts |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 1.36 |
| 1.73 | Goals against / game | 1.88 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target / game | 5.0 |
| 4.1 | On target against / game | 5.4 |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 5-2-10 | Home W-D-L | 6-3-7 |
| 4-4-8 | Away W-D-L | 5-3-9 |
| W-L-L-L-W | Last five | L-L-W-L-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Aug 15, 2026 · MLS Atlanta 2-1 Red Bull NY
- May 31, 2025 · MLS Red Bull NY 2-0 Atlanta
- Mar 8, 2025 · MLS Atlanta 0-0 Red Bull NY
- Oct 5, 2024 · MLS Atlanta 2-1 Red Bull NY
- Sep 21, 2024 · MLS Red Bull NY 2-2 Atlanta
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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