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NE

New England @ Orlando

MLS · · Inter&Co Stadium

ORL

New England 18-4-11 · 58 pts · 4th MLS · Form WWWWL
Orlando 12-7-14 · 43 pts · 19th MLS · Form DWDDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
ORLOrlando City SC
47% to win

Draw 23% · New England 30%

ModelNE 30%ORL 47%
MarketNE 30%ORL 47%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 47% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
ORL win-10547% · +113
Draw+30023% · +336
NE win+20530% · +232
ORL or draw–70%
NE or draw–53%
HandicapORL -0.5 (-115)ORL 47%
Total 3.5O -120 · U -110Over 49%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
ORL 2.0, NE 1.6
Likeliest scores (ORL first)
1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%)
Both teams score
70%
Clean sheet
ORL 20% · NE 13%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Orlando can win

  1. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  2. Expected goals: Orlando average 2.0 goals in the simulations, New England 1.6.
  3. Clean sheet: Orlando kept New England scoreless in 20% of simulated matches.
  4. The betting market agrees: Orlando 47%, draw 23%, New England 30% on DraftKings's odds.
  5. Simulation: Orlando won 47% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Orlando may not

  1. Goal difference: New England are +0.27 a game this season (1.67 scored, 1.39 conceded); Orlando -0.48.
  2. Form: New England took 12 points from their last five (W-W-W-W-L), Orlando 6 (D-W-D-D-L).
  3. Defense: New England concede 1.39 a game, Orlando 2.36.
  4. The table: New England sit 4th with 58 points from 33 games, Orlando 19th with 43.
  5. The draw: 23% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Orlando to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  6. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make New England about 0.11 goals a game stronger than Orlando before home field.
  7. Fine margins: 58% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

NE New EnglandORL Orlando
MLSLeagueMLS
4th, 58 ptsTable19th, 43 pts
1.67Goals for / game1.88
1.39Goals against / game2.36
4.9Shots on target / game5.2
5.6On target against / game6.6
18%Clean sheets12%
11-2-4Home W-D-L9-3-4
7-2-7Away W-D-L3-4-10
W-W-W-W-LLast fiveD-W-D-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Sep 19, 2026 · MLS New England 4-2 Orlando
  • Jul 19, 2025 · MLS New England 1-2 Orlando
  • May 10, 2025 · MLS Orlando 3-3 New England
  • Sep 14, 2024 · MLS Orlando 3-0 New England
  • Jul 13, 2024 · MLS New England 1-3 Orlando

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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