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TOR

Toronto @ Philadelphia

MLS · · Subaru Park

PHI

Toronto 9-12-12 · 39 pts · 23rd MLS · Form DWLWL
Philadelphia 13-8-12 · 47 pts · 12th MLS · Form WDLDL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Union
64% to win

Draw 19% · Toronto 17%

ModelTOR 17%PHI 64%
MarketTOR 17%PHI 64%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
PHI win-23564% · -180
Draw+38019% · +424
TOR win+45017% · +500
PHI or draw–83%
TOR or draw–36%
HandicapPHI -1.5 (+105)PHI 43%
Total 3.5O -110 · U -120Over 51%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
PHI 2.5, TOR 1.2
Likeliest scores (PHI first)
2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%)
Both teams score
66%
Clean sheet
PHI 29% · TOR 8%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Philadelphia can win

  1. Goal difference: Philadelphia are +0.33 a game this season (1.88 scored, 1.55 conceded); Toronto -0.36.
  2. Shots on target: Philadelphia out-shoot opponents by +1.7 on target a game, Toronto by -0.9. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
  3. The table: Philadelphia sit 12th with 47 points from 33 games, Toronto 23rd with 39.
  4. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Philadelphia about 0.58 goals a game stronger than Toronto before home field.
  5. Home and away: Philadelphia are 7-5-4 at home, Toronto 3-3-10 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  6. Defense: Philadelphia concede 1.55 a game, Toronto 1.91.
  7. Scoring: Philadelphia score 1.88 goals a game, Toronto 1.55.

Disadvantages Why Philadelphia may not

  1. The draw: 19% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Philadelphia to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 50% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Toronto won 17% of simulated matches. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

TOR TorontoPHI Philadelphia
MLSLeagueMLS
23rd, 39 ptsTable12th, 47 pts
1.55Goals for / game1.88
1.91Goals against / game1.55
4.4Shots on target / game5.3
5.3On target against / game3.6
12%Clean sheets21%
6-9-2Home W-D-L7-5-4
3-3-10Away W-D-L6-3-8
D-W-L-W-LLast fiveW-D-L-D-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Apr 22, 2026 · MLS Toronto 3-3 Philadelphia
  • Aug 9, 2025 · MLS Philadelphia 1-1 Toronto
  • May 28, 2025 · MLS Toronto 1-2 Philadelphia
  • Jul 13, 2024 · MLS Toronto 2-1 Philadelphia
  • May 29, 2024 · MLS Philadelphia 0-0 Toronto

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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