Portland 12-7-14 · 43 pts · 16th MLS · Form LDWWW
Austin 8-10-15 · 34 pts · 26th MLS · Form LLWLL
Game day
KickoffDraw 22% · Austin 23%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| ATX win | +300 | 23% · +338 |
| Draw | +320 | 22% · +360 |
| POR win | -155 | 55% · -125 |
| ATX or draw | – | 45% |
| POR or draw | – | 77% |
| Handicap | ATX +0.5 (+110) | ATX 45% |
| Total 3.5 | O -105 · U -125 | Over 48% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- ATX 1.4, POR 2.2
- Likeliest scores (ATX first)
- 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 67%
- Clean sheet
- ATX 11% · POR 26%
Advantages Why Portland can win
- Form: Portland took 10 points from their last five (L-D-W-W-W), Austin 3 (L-L-W-L-L).
- Goal difference: Portland are -0.03 a game this season (1.82 scored, 1.85 conceded); Austin -0.64.
- The table: Portland sit 16th with 43 points from 33 games, Austin 26th with 34.
- Scoring: Portland score 1.82 goals a game, Austin 1.27.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Portland about 0.51 goals a game stronger than Austin before home field.
- Shots on target: Portland out-shoot opponents by -0.8 on target a game, Austin by -2.2. Shots are a steadier guide than goals over a few weeks.
- Expected goals: Portland average 2.2 goals in the simulations, Austin 1.4.
Disadvantages Why Portland may not
- The draw: 21% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Portland to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Fine margins: 55% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Austin won 22% of simulated matches. A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| POR Portland | ATX Austin | |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | League | MLS |
| 16th, 43 pts | Table | 26th, 34 pts |
| 1.82 | Goals for / game | 1.27 |
| 1.85 | Goals against / game | 1.91 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target / game | 4.2 |
| 5.6 | On target against / game | 6.3 |
| 6% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 9-4-4 | Home W-D-L | 4-6-6 |
| 3-3-10 | Away W-D-L | 4-4-9 |
| L-D-W-W-W | Last five | L-L-W-L-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Aug 29, 2026 · MLS Portland 1-2 Austin
- Apr 5, 2025 · MLS Austin 0-0 Portland
- Mar 1, 2025 · MLS Portland 1-0 Austin
- Oct 2, 2024 · MLS Portland 0-1 Austin
- May 29, 2024 · MLS Austin 0-2 Portland
Your pick
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How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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