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COL

Colorado @ Dallas

MLS · · Toyota Stadium

DAL

Colorado 12-7-14 · 43 pts · 17th MLS · Form DDWDL
Dallas 15-10-8 · 55 pts · 6th MLS · Form WDWLD

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
DALFC Dallas
45% to win

Draw 25% · Colorado 30%

ModelCOL 30%DAL 45%
MarketCOL 30%DAL 45%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 45% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
DAL win+10545% · +124
Draw+26525% · +300
COL win+20030% · +229
DAL or draw–70%
COL or draw–55%
HandicapDAL -0.5 (EVEN)DAL 45%
Total 2.5O -160 · U +120Over 61%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
DAL 1.7, COL 1.4
Likeliest scores (DAL first)
1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%)
Both teams score
63%
Clean sheet
DAL 24% · COL 18%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Dallas can win

  1. Home and away: Dallas are 8-5-3 at home, Colorado 2-4-10 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  2. The table: Dallas sit 6th with 55 points from 33 games, Colorado 17th with 43.
  3. Goal difference: Dallas are +0.27 a game this season (1.79 scored, 1.52 conceded); Colorado -0.03.
  4. Scoring: Dallas score 1.79 goals a game, Colorado 1.39.
  5. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  6. Expected goals: Dallas average 1.7 goals in the simulations, Colorado 1.4.
  7. Clean sheet: Dallas kept Colorado scoreless in 24% of simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Dallas may not

  1. The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Dallas to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Fine margins: 62% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  3. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  4. Upset odds: Colorado won 31% of simulated matches. A 45% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

COL ColoradoDAL Dallas
MLSLeagueMLS
17th, 43 ptsTable6th, 55 pts
1.39Goals for / game1.79
1.42Goals against / game1.52
4.3Shots on target / game4.7
4.2On target against / game4.8
33%Clean sheets24%
10-3-4Home W-D-L8-5-3
2-4-10Away W-D-L7-5-5
D-D-W-D-LLast fiveW-D-W-L-D

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • May 23, 2026 · MLS Colorado 1-2 Dallas
  • Sep 20, 2025 · MLS Dallas 3-1 Colorado
  • Mar 1, 2025 · MLS Colorado 3-3 Dallas
  • Aug 31, 2024 · MLS Dallas 2-3 Colorado
  • Apr 20, 2024 · MLS Colorado 2-1 Dallas

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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