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STL

St. Louis @ Houston

MLS · · Shell Energy Stadium

HOU

St. Louis 14-9-10 · 51 pts · 9th MLS · Form DLLLL
Houston 14-9-10 · 51 pts · 10th MLS · Form DDDWL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
HOUHouston Dynamo FC
39% to win

Draw 27% · St. Louis 34%

ModelSTL 34%HOU 39%
MarketSTL 34%HOU 39%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 39% pick still loses about 6 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
HOU win+13539% · +158
Draw+24027% · +273
STL win+16534% · +191
HOU or draw–66%
STL or draw–61%
HandicapHOU -0.5 (+130)HOU 39%
Total 2.5O -160 · U +120Over 55%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
HOU 1.5, STL 1.4
Likeliest scores (HOU first)
1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)
Both teams score
59%
Clean sheet
HOU 25% · STL 23%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Houston can win

  1. Form: Houston took 6 points from their last five (D-D-D-W-L), St. Louis 1 (D-L-L-L-L).
  2. Clean sheets: Houston kept one in 39% of games, St. Louis in 15%.
  3. Home and away: Houston are 8-5-3 at home, St. Louis 5-5-6 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  4. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  5. Expected goals: Houston average 1.5 goals in the simulations, St. Louis 1.4.
  6. Clean sheet: Houston kept St. Louis scoreless in 25% of simulated matches.
  7. The betting market agrees: Houston 39%, draw 27%, St. Louis 34% on DraftKings's odds.

Disadvantages Why Houston may not

  1. The draw: 27% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Houston to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  2. Scoring: St. Louis score 1.76 goals a game, Houston 1.30.
  3. Goal difference: St. Louis are +0.30 a game this season (1.76 scored, 1.45 conceded); Houston +0.03.
  4. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make St. Louis about 0.24 goals a game stronger than Houston before home field.
  5. Fine margins: 65% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
  6. Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
  7. Upset odds: St. Louis won 35% of simulated matches. A 39% pick still loses about 6 times in 10.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

STL St. LouisHOU Houston
MLSLeagueMLS
9th, 51 ptsTable10th, 51 pts
1.76Goals for / game1.30
1.45Goals against / game1.27
5.0Shots on target / game4.1
4.1On target against / game4.1
15%Clean sheets39%
9-4-4Home W-D-L8-5-3
5-5-6Away W-D-L6-4-7
D-L-L-L-LLast fiveD-D-D-W-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • Aug 22, 2026 · MLS St. Louis 2-1 Houston
  • Aug 30, 2025 · MLS St. Louis 2-3 Houston
  • Jun 28, 2025 · MLS Houston 1-0 St. Louis
  • Oct 5, 2024 · MLS St. Louis 3-0 Houston
  • May 4, 2024 · MLS Houston 0-0 St. Louis

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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