San Jose 14-10-9 · 52 pts · 8th MLS · Form DDLDW
Minnesota 10-11-12 · 41 pts · 21st MLS · Form DWDWW
Game day
KickoffDraw 23% · San Jose 24%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| MIN win | -135 | 53% · -112 |
| Draw | +300 | 23% · +335 |
| SJ win | +280 | 24% · +313 |
| MIN or draw | – | 76% |
| SJ or draw | – | 47% |
| Handicap | MIN -0.5 (-150) | MIN 53% |
| Total 3.5 | O +105 · U -140 | Over 44% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- MIN 2.0, SJ 1.4
- Likeliest scores (MIN first)
- 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 65%
- Clean sheet
- MIN 26% · SJ 14%
Advantages Why Minnesota can win
- Form: Minnesota took 11 points from their last five (D-W-D-W-W), San Jose 6 (D-D-L-D-W).
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make Minnesota about 0.20 goals a game stronger than San Jose before home field.
- Expected goals: Minnesota average 2.0 goals in the simulations, San Jose 1.4.
- Clean sheet: Minnesota kept San Jose scoreless in 26% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: Minnesota 53%, draw 23%, San Jose 24% on DraftKings's odds.
- Simulation: Minnesota won 52% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why Minnesota may not
- The table: San Jose sit 8th with 52 points from 33 games, Minnesota 21st with 41.
- Goal difference: San Jose are +0.24 a game this season (1.70 scored, 1.45 conceded); Minnesota -0.12.
- The draw: 23% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Minnesota to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Defense: San Jose concede 1.45 a game, Minnesota 1.73.
- Fine margins: 58% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: San Jose won 25% of simulated matches. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| SJ San Jose | MIN Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | League | MLS |
| 8th, 52 pts | Table | 21st, 41 pts |
| 1.70 | Goals for / game | 1.61 |
| 1.45 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 4.9 | Shots on target / game | 5.0 |
| 4.9 | On target against / game | 4.8 |
| 21% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 7-5-5 | Home W-D-L | 4-7-5 |
| 7-5-4 | Away W-D-L | 6-4-7 |
| D-D-L-D-W | Last five | D-W-D-W-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Aug 22, 2026 · MLS San Jose 1-5 Minnesota
- Jul 12, 2025 · MLS Minnesota 4-1 San Jose
- Mar 8, 2025 · MLS San Jose 0-1 Minnesota
- Aug 31, 2024 · MLS San Jose 1-2 Minnesota
- Jul 20, 2024 · MLS Minnesota 2-0 San Jose
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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