LA Galaxy 11-11-11 · 44 pts · 15th MLS · Form LWDDW
Salt Lake 12-6-15 · 42 pts · 20th MLS · Form DWWWL
Game day
KickoffDraw 21% · LA Galaxy 21%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| RSL win | -165 | 57% · -134 |
| Draw | +330 | 21% · +368 |
| LA win | +330 | 21% · +368 |
| RSL or draw | – | 79% |
| LA or draw | – | 43% |
| Handicap | RSL -0.5 (-175) | RSL 57% |
| Total 3.5 | O -105 · U -130 | Over 48% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- RSL 2.2, LA 1.3
- Likeliest scores (RSL first)
- 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 66%
- Clean sheet
- RSL 27% · LA 11%
Advantages Why Salt Lake can win
- Home and away: Salt Lake are 9-3-4 at home, LA Galaxy 4-5-7 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
- Expected goals: Salt Lake average 2.2 goals in the simulations, LA Galaxy 1.3.
- Clean sheet: Salt Lake kept LA Galaxy scoreless in 27% of simulated matches.
- The betting market agrees: Salt Lake 57%, draw 21%, LA Galaxy 21% on DraftKings's odds.
- Simulation: Salt Lake won 57% of 10,000 simulated matches.
Disadvantages Why Salt Lake may not
- The draw: 22% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Salt Lake to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- The table: LA Galaxy sit 15th with 44 points from 33 games, Salt Lake 20th with 42.
- Fine margins: 55% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: LA Galaxy won 21% of simulated matches. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| LA LA Galaxy | RSL Salt Lake | |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | League | MLS |
| 15th, 44 pts | Table | 20th, 42 pts |
| 1.48 | Goals for / game | 1.55 |
| 1.67 | Goals against / game | 1.55 |
| 5.5 | Shots on target / game | 5.4 |
| 4.9 | On target against / game | 4.3 |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 7-6-4 | Home W-D-L | 9-3-4 |
| 4-5-7 | Away W-D-L | 3-3-11 |
| L-W-D-D-W | Last five | D-W-W-W-L |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 5 meetings
- Apr 26, 2026 · MLS LA Galaxy 2-1 Salt Lake
- May 31, 2025 · MLS LA Galaxy 2-0 Salt Lake
- Apr 5, 2025 · MLS Salt Lake 2-0 LA Galaxy
- Jun 22, 2024 · MLS Salt Lake 0-1 LA Galaxy
- May 11, 2024 · MLS LA Galaxy 2-2 Salt Lake
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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