Kansas City 6-5-22 · 23 pts · 30th MLS · Form LLLLD
San Diego 9-11-13 · 38 pts · 25th MLS · Form DDDLW
Game day
KickoffDraw 18% · Kansas City 18%
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| SD win | -225 | 63% · -173 |
| Draw | +400 | 18% · +446 |
| SKC win | +400 | 18% · +446 |
| SD or draw | – | 82% |
| SKC or draw | – | 37% |
| Handicap | SD -1.5 (EVEN) | SD 44% |
| Total 3.5 | O -160 · U +120 | Over 59% |
Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
10,000 simulated matches
- Expected goals
- SD 2.7, SKC 1.4
- Likeliest scores (SD first)
- 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%)
- Both teams score
- 71%
- Clean sheet
- SD 24% · SKC 7%
Advantages Why San Diego can win
- Goal difference: San Diego are -0.15 a game this season (1.73 scored, 1.88 conceded); Kansas City -1.27.
- Form: San Diego took 6 points from their last five (D-D-D-L-W), Kansas City 1 (L-L-L-L-D).
- Defense: San Diego concede 1.88 a game, Kansas City 2.45.
- Scoring: San Diego score 1.73 goals a game, Kansas City 1.18.
- Home and away: San Diego are 6-5-5 at home, Kansas City 3-0-13 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
- Clean sheets: San Diego kept one in 24% of games, Kansas City in 3%.
- Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make San Diego about 0.44 goals a game stronger than Kansas City before home field.
Disadvantages Why San Diego may not
- The draw: 18% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing San Diego to win; about one match in four ends that way.
- Fine margins: 49% of simulated matches were level or decided by one goal, so one chance, a deflection or a red card can turn it.
- Lineups: clubs name their starting eleven about an hour before kickoff, after our numbers were run, so who is rested or rotated in a busy week isn't in them.
- Upset odds: Kansas City won 19% of simulated matches. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| SKC Kansas City | SD San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| MLS | League | MLS |
| 30th, 23 pts | Table | 25th, 38 pts |
| 1.18 | Goals for / game | 1.73 |
| 2.45 | Goals against / game | 1.88 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target / game | 4.6 |
| 6.0 | On target against / game | 5.7 |
| 3% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 3-5-9 | Home W-D-L | 6-5-5 |
| 3-0-13 | Away W-D-L | 3-6-8 |
| L-L-L-L-D | Last five | D-D-D-L-W |
This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.
Last 3 meetings
- Mar 7, 2026 · MLS Kansas City 0-1 San Diego
- Aug 9, 2025 · MLS Kansas City 0-2 San Diego
- May 17, 2025 · MLS San Diego 0-0 Kansas City
Your pick
Locks at kickoff · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day
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