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LAFC

LAFC @ Seattle

MLS · · Lumen Field

SEA

LAFC 12-11-10 · 47 pts · 11th MLS · Form DWDDL
Seattle 11-10-12 · 43 pts · 18th MLS · Form LDDLL

Game day

Kickoff

Lineups

Our pick
SEASeattle Sounders FC
48% to win

Draw 25% · LAFC 27%

ModelLAFC 27%SEA 48%
MarketLAFC 27%SEA 48%

Same as the market. Not a promise: a 48% pick still loses about 5 times in 10. In soccer a draw counts as a loss for a win pick.

The line

MarketAZMango
SEA win-11048% · +108
Draw+26525% · +297
LAFC win+24527% · +275
SEA or draw–73%
LAFC or draw–52%
HandicapSEA -0.5 (-115)SEA 48%
Total 2.5O -175 · U +135Over 58%

Line: , DraftKings. Odds move; check a book before acting. The chances shown are the market's (our own ratings didn't beat it in the backtest). Every bet here is settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

10,000 simulated matches

Expected goals
SEA 1.7, LAFC 1.3
Likeliest scores (SEA first)
1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%)
Both teams score
59%
Clean sheet
SEA 29% · LAFC 18%
Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Seattle can win

  1. Home and away: Seattle are 7-4-5 at home, LAFC 3-7-6 on the road (wins-draws-losses).
  2. Home field: playing at home is worth about 0.23 goals a game in the MLS, by our ratings of every match since 2012.
  3. Expected goals: Seattle average 1.7 goals in the simulations, LAFC 1.3.
  4. Clean sheet: Seattle kept LAFC scoreless in 29% of simulated matches.
  5. The betting market agrees: Seattle 48%, draw 25%, LAFC 27% on DraftKings's odds.
  6. Simulation: Seattle won 48% of 10,000 simulated matches.

Disadvantages Why Seattle may not

  1. Goal difference: LAFC are +0.39 a game this season (1.55 scored, 1.15 conceded); Seattle -0.09.
  2. Form: LAFC took 6 points from their last five (D-W-D-D-L), Seattle 2 (L-D-D-L-L).
  3. The draw: 25% of simulated matches ended level. In soccer a draw is a loss for anyone backing Seattle to win; about one match in four ends that way.
  4. The table: LAFC sit 11th with 47 points from 33 games, Seattle 18th with 43.
  5. Clean sheets: LAFC kept one in 39% of games, Seattle in 24%.
  6. Scoring: LAFC score 1.55 goals a game, Seattle 1.27.
  7. Ratings: our goal ratings (results, shots and past closing odds since 2012) make LAFC about 0.11 goals a game stronger than Seattle before home field.

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

LAFC LAFCSEA Seattle
MLSLeagueMLS
11th, 47 ptsTable18th, 43 pts
1.55Goals for / game1.27
1.15Goals against / game1.36
4.8Shots on target / game5.0
4.1On target against / game5.1
39%Clean sheets24%
9-4-4Home W-D-L7-4-5
3-7-6Away W-D-L4-6-7
D-W-D-D-LLast fiveL-D-D-L-L

This season in each club's own league (ESPN's results and shots). Last five: every competition.

Last 5 meetings

  • May 24, 2026 · MLS LAFC 1-0 Seattle
  • May 14, 2025 · MLS LAFC 4-0 Seattle
  • Mar 8, 2025 · MLS Seattle 5-2 LAFC
  • Nov 23, 2024 · MLS LAFC 1-2 Seattle
  • Jul 20, 2024 · MLS Seattle 0-3 LAFC

How we get these numbers: How it works · This matchup on any day

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