Soccer track record
Every soccer call is logged before kickoff and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted.
Live picks
The live soccer record starts with the first graded match. Every call is logged before kickoff and graded on the 90-minute result, wins, draws and losses alike.
Backtest against the closing odds
Each match was predicted using only matches played before it. The benchmark is the closing 1X2 line (Pinnacle's where football-data.co.uk has it, else the average across books; Bet365's stored pre-match odds for the Champions League), with the bookmaker's margin taken out. "Winners" counts how often the side rated most likely won; a draw is a miss for everyone.
| Matches | Market winners | Our winners | Market log loss | Our log loss | Draws | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 2,750 | 54.4% | 53.7% | 0.966 | 0.973 | 24% |
| Champions League | 802 | 60.6% | 58.9% | 0.893 | 0.912 | 18% |
| MLS | 3,774 | 49.2% | 48.9% | 1.023 | 1.035 | 26% |
| Liga MX | 2,438 | 50.4% | 49.9% | 1.008 | 1.019 | 26% |
| La Liga | 2,769 | 54.2% | 53.2% | 0.967 | 0.978 | 27% |
The honest summary: our ratings come within about a point of the closing line in every league, but the market's probabilities are sharper (lower log loss), so the guard rail keeps our own numbers off the match pages and shows the market's. Soccer is close to the hardest sport to call: even the market's favorite wins only about half the time, because one match in four is a draw. What we add is the explanation, every number side by side, a rating for every pairing and a record you can check.