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Nuno Borges vs Karen Khachanov

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 1, Paris, France

KK
Our pick
KKKaren Khachanov
65% to win
ModelBorges 35%Khachanov 65%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

62%straight sets
38%goes to a third set
24.1games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

NB 2-019%
NB 2-116%
KK 2-122%
KK 2-042%

Fair game spread: Khachanov by about 2.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aBorges +182
Khachanov -182 fair
Game spreadn/aBorges +2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Karen Khachanov can win

  1. Head to head: leads 2-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  2. More matches on hard: 392 to Borges's 124
  3. Fresher legs: 27 games played in the last three days to Borges's 66
  4. Higher rating for this match: 1768 to Borges's 1727 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with hard counting extra)
  5. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1754 to Borges's 1702
  6. Simulation: Khachanov wins in straight sets 42% of the time

Disadvantages Why Karen Khachanov may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Borges wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 58% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

NB BorgesKK Khachanov
–Seed–
PORFromRUS
1727Rating for this match1768
1752Rating, all surfaces1783
1702Rating, hard courts only1754
5-5Last 10 matches6-4
215Tour-level matches since 2010588
124Matches on hard392
1 day agoLast match1 day ago
6Matches in the last 2 weeks5

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Borges 0-2 Khachanov

  • KKWimbledon · R37-6(6) 4-6 4-6 6-3 7-6(8)Jul 2025
  • KKRoland Garros · R16-3 2-6 6-4 6-4May 2022

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

NB Nuno Borges

  • WMoise Kouame6-3 6-1Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LAlex Molcan7-6(5) 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
  • WAdrian Mannarino4-6 6-1 7-5Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
  • LJan-Lennard Struff6-2 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WCasper Ruud1-6 6-3 6-4Swiss Indoors Basel · R2

KK Karen Khachanov

  • WDenis Shapovalov6-3 6-7(6) 1-4 ret.Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LCarlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6(5)Erste Bank Open · R1
  • LAlexander Bublik4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(5)Almaty Open · QF
  • WTomas Machac6-2 4-6 7-6(7)Almaty Open · R2
  • WRei Sakamoto6-2 6-4Almaty Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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