Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Alex de Minaur (8)
ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 2, Paris, France
How it plays out
Set score (best of 3)
Fair game spread: de Minaur by about 3.5 games; fair total 21.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | n/a | Etcheverry +296 de Minaur -296 fair |
| Game spread | n/a | Etcheverry +3.5 fair |
| Total games | n/a | 21.5 fair |
No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.
Advantages Why Alex de Minaur can win
- Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1916 to Etcheverry's 1648
- Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1903 to Etcheverry's 1591
- More matches on hard: 349 to Etcheverry's 120
- Seeded 8; Etcheverry is unseeded
- Simulation: de Minaur wins in straight sets 53% of the time
Disadvantages Why Alex de Minaur may not
- Etcheverry · de Minaur retired from a match in the last month, which often means an injury
- Etcheverry · Fresher legs: 36 games played in the last three days to de Minaur's 47
- One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
- Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
- Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
- Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
- Upset odds: Etcheverry wins about 1 time in 4, and takes at least a set 47% of the time
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| TE Etcheverry | AM de Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| – | Seed | 8 |
| ARG | From | AUS |
| 1620 | Rating for this match | 1909 |
| 1648 | Rating, all surfaces | 1916 |
| 1591 | Rating, hard courts only | 1903 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 matches | 7-3 |
| 275 | Tour-level matches since 2010 | 504 |
| 120 | Matches on hard | 349 |
| 1 day ago | Last match | 2 days ago |
| 3 | Matches in the last 2 weeks | 5 |
Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.
Head to head: Etcheverry 1-1 de Minaur
- AMBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell · R26-4 6-4Apr 2025
- TERoland Garros · R26-3 7-6(2) 6-3Jun 2023
Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.
Last 5 matches
TE Tomas Martin Etcheverry
- WAndrey Rublev6-4 6-7(4) 7-6(3)Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- LMatteo Berrettini6-3 6-4Erste Bank Open · R1
- LMattia Bellucci7-6(5) 2-6 6-4Almaty Open · R1
- LDalibor Svrcina6-3 3-6 7-5Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
- LStefanos Tsitsipas4-6 6-3 6-4Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · R1
AM Alex de Minaur
- LCarlos Alcaraz6-1 6-4Erste Bank Open · F
- WAlexander Zverev6-4 1-6 7-6(4)Erste Bank Open · SF
- WMatteo Berrettini7-6(4) 6-2Erste Bank Open · QF
- WLearner Tien6-4 6-2Erste Bank Open · R2
- WTomas Machac1-6 6-4 6-3Erste Bank Open · R1
Player news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the first serve · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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