Novak Djokovic (10) vs Rinky Hijikata
ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court Central, Paris, France
How it plays out
Set score (best of 3)
Fair game spread: Djokovic by about 4.5 games; fair total 20.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | n/a | Djokovic -606 Hijikata +606 fair |
| Game spread | n/a | Djokovic -4.5 fair |
| Total games | n/a | 20.5 fair |
No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.
Advantages Why Novak Djokovic can win
- Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 2056 to Hijikata's 1677
- Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 2033 to Hijikata's 1638
- More matches on hard: 652 to Hijikata's 139
- Head to head: leads 2-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
- Seeded 10; Hijikata is unseeded
- Simulation: Djokovic wins in straight sets 67% of the time
Disadvantages Why Novak Djokovic may not
- One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
- Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
- Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
- Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
- Upset odds: Hijikata wins about 1 time in 7, and takes at least a set 33% of the time
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Side by side
| ND Djokovic | RH Hijikata | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Seed | – |
| SER | From | AUS |
| 2044 | Rating for this match | 1658 |
| 2056 | Rating, all surfaces | 1677 |
| 2033 | Rating, hard courts only | 1638 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 matches | 5-5 |
| 1035 | Tour-level matches since 2010 | 198 |
| 652 | Matches on hard | 139 |
| 1 day ago | Last match | 2 days ago |
| 3 | Matches in the last 2 weeks | 6 |
Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.
Head to head: Djokovic 2-0 Hijikata
- NDMiami Open presented by Itau · R26-0 7-6(1)Mar 2025
- NDBrisbane International presented by ANZ · R16-3 6-3Dec 2024
Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.
Last 5 matches
ND Novak Djokovic
- WValentin Vacherot6-7(5) 7-5 6-1Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- LJan-Lennard Struff6-7(4) 7-5 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R2
- WUgo Humbert4-6 6-3 6-4Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
- LHubert Hurkacz6-4 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
- WAlex de Minaur7-6(3) 0-1 ret.China Open · F
RH Rinky Hijikata
- WLuciano Darderi6-2 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- WVit Kopriva7-6(5) 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
- WJaime Faria6-3 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
- LTaylor Fritz6-4 7-6(3)Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
- LYannick Hanfmann6-4 1-6 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · QF (qualifying)
Player news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the first serve · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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