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IB

Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev (4)

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 1, Paris, France

DM
Our pick
DMDaniil Medvedev
79% to win
ModelBuse 21%Medvedev 79%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

How it plays out

68%straight sets
32%goes to a third set
22.8games on average (16 to 32, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

IB 2-010%
IB 2-111%
DM 2-121%
DM 2-058%

Fair game spread: Medvedev by about 4.5 games; fair total 21.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aBuse +376
Medvedev -376 fair
Game spreadn/aBuse +4.5 fair
Total gamesn/a21.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Daniil Medvedev can win

  1. More matches on hard: 478 to Buse's 24
  2. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1928 to Buse's 1702
  3. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1934 to Buse's 1604
  4. Seeded 4; Buse is unseeded
  5. Simulation: Medvedev wins in straight sets 58% of the time

Disadvantages Why Daniil Medvedev may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Buse wins about 1 time in 5, and takes at least a set 42% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

IB BuseDM Medvedev
–Seed4
PERFromRUS
1653Rating for this match1931
1702Rating, all surfaces1928
1604Rating, hard courts only1934
6-4Last 10 matches8-2
69Tour-level matches since 2010652
24Matches on hard478
2 days agoLast match3 days ago
2Matches in the last 2 weeks8

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

IB Ignacio Buse

  • WZizou Bergs6-2 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LAdrian Mannarino0-6 7-5 6-4Erste Bank Open · R1
  • LZizou Bergs6-0 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
  • LQuentin Halys6-1 7-6(3)China Open · R1
  • LBenjamin Bonzi6-2 7-6(4) 6-0US Open · R2

DM Daniil Medvedev

  • LCarlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6(2)Erste Bank Open · SF
  • WAdrian Mannarino6-2 6-3Erste Bank Open · QF
  • WCameron Norrie4-6 6-3 7-6(1)Erste Bank Open · R2
  • WDaniel Merida7-6(5) 6-1Erste Bank Open · R1
  • WNikoloz Basilashvili6-7(6) 6-1 6-3Almaty Open · F

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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