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Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan-Lennard Struff

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 2, Paris, France

JS
Our pick
JSJan-Lennard Struff
68% to win
ModelTirante 32%Struff 68%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

How it plays out

63%straight sets
37%goes to a third set
23.8games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

TT 2-017%
TT 2-115%
JS 2-122%
JS 2-046%

Fair game spread: Struff by about 3.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aTirante +214
Struff -214 fair
Game spreadn/aTirante +3.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Jan-Lennard Struff can win

  1. More matches on hard: 306 to Tirante's 60
  2. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  3. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1768 to Tirante's 1684
  4. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1691 to Tirante's 1577
  5. Simulation: Struff wins in straight sets 46% of the time

Disadvantages Why Jan-Lennard Struff may not

  1. Tirante · Fresher legs: 20 games played in the last three days to Struff's 53
  2. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  3. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  4. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  5. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  6. Upset odds: Tirante wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 54% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

TT TiranteJS Struff
–Seed–
ARGFromGER
1631Rating for this match1730
1684Rating, all surfaces1768
1577Rating, hard courts only1691
3-7Last 10 matches8-2
139Tour-level matches since 2010552
60Matches on hard306
3 days agoLast matchtoday
3Matches in the last 2 weeks9

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Tirante 0-1 Struff

  • JSChina Open · R16-1 6-4Sep 2026

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

TT Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • LMattia Bellucci6-4 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
  • WZachary Svajda3-6 6-1 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
  • LAdrian Mannarino6-4 7-6(5)Erste Bank Open · Q1
  • LFacundo Diaz Acosta6-7(3) 6-1 6-4Almaty Open · R1
  • LRafael Jodar4-6 6-2 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2

JS Jan-Lennard Struff

  • WArthur Gea7-6(3) 6-3Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LJiri Lehecka3-6 7-5 6-4Swiss Indoors Basel · SF
  • WNuno Borges6-2 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WNovak Djokovic6-7(4) 7-5 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R2
  • WYannick Hanfmann6-4 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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