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QH

Quentin Halys vs Frances Tiafoe (7)

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court Central, Paris, France

FT
Our pick
FTFrances Tiafoe
63% to win
ModelHalys 37%Tiafoe 63%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

61%straight sets
39%goes to a third set
24.2games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

QH 2-021%
QH 2-117%
FT 2-122%
FT 2-041%

Fair game spread: Tiafoe by about 2.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aHalys +168
Tiafoe -168 fair
Game spreadn/aHalys +2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Frances Tiafoe can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1881 to Halys's 1740
  2. More matches on hard: 342 to Halys's 163
  3. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1837 to Halys's 1682
  4. Fresher legs: 0 games played in the last three days to Halys's 25
  5. Seeded 7; Halys is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Tiafoe wins in straight sets 41% of the time

Disadvantages Why Frances Tiafoe may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Halys wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 59% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

QH HalysFT Tiafoe
–Seed7
FRAFromUSA
1711Rating for this match1859
1740Rating, all surfaces1881
1682Rating, hard courts only1837
5-5Last 10 matches6-4
248Tour-level matches since 2010495
163Matches on hard342
todayLast match6 days ago
2Matches in the last 2 weeks1

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head

No tour-level meeting since 2010.

Last 5 matches

QH Quentin Halys

  • WArthur Fery7-6(6) 7-5Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LHolger Rune6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
  • LAlexander Zverev6-4 6-7(8) 6-3Rolex Shanghai Masters · R3
  • WAlexander Blockx4-6 7-6(9) 6-4Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
  • WChak Lam Coleman Wong6-4 7-6(5)Rolex Shanghai Masters · R1

FT Frances Tiafoe

  • LLorenzo Musetti7-6(6) 7-5Erste Bank Open · R1
  • LAlejandro Davidovich Fokina7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(6)Rolex Shanghai Masters · R3
  • WYannick Hanfmann6-4 6-4Rolex Shanghai Masters · R2
  • LArthur Fils6-3 7-5Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · R2
  • WKei Nishikori6-4 6-4Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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