Tommy Paul (12) vs Daniel Merida
ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 2, Paris, France
How it plays out
Set score (best of 3)
Fair game spread: Paul by about 3.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | n/a | Paul -207 Merida +207 fair |
| Game spread | n/a | Paul -3.5 fair |
| Total games | n/a | 22.5 fair |
No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.
Advantages Why Tommy Paul can win
- More matches on hard: 293 to Merida's 27
- Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1904 to Merida's 1785
- Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1853 to Merida's 1724
- Seeded 12; Merida is unseeded
- Simulation: Paul wins in straight sets 45% of the time
Disadvantages Why Tommy Paul may not
- One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
- Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
- Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
- Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
- Upset odds: Merida wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 55% of the time
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.
Side by side
| TP Paul | DM Merida | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Seed | – |
| USA | From | ESP |
| 1878 | Rating for this match | 1754 |
| 1904 | Rating, all surfaces | 1785 |
| 1853 | Rating, hard courts only | 1724 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 matches | 5-5 |
| 424 | Tour-level matches since 2010 | 54 |
| 293 | Matches on hard | 27 |
| today | Last match | 1 day ago |
| 7 | Matches in the last 2 weeks | 2 |
Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.
Head to head
No tour-level meeting since 2010.
Last 5 matches
TP Tommy Paul
- WHolger Rune7-5 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- LCarlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6(2)Erste Bank Open · QF
- WLuciano Darderi6-1 6-1Erste Bank Open · R2
- WAndrey Rublev7-5 6-2Erste Bank Open · R1
- LTaylor Fritz6-3 7-5Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes · SF
DM Daniel Merida
- WSebastian Baez6-4 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · R1
- LDaniil Medvedev7-6(5) 6-1Erste Bank Open · R1
- LBotic Van De Zandschulp1-6 6-3 6-4Rolex Shanghai Masters · R1
- LAlex Michelsen7-6(5) 6-4 6-3US Open · R3
- WAndrey Rublev6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4US Open · R2
Player news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Your pick
Locks at the first serve · Challenge a friend · All picks · Leaderboard
What changed
Nothing since our first call ().
How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own
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