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Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Paris, France

AR
Our pick
ARArthur Rinderknech
62% to win
ModelBellucci 38%Rinderknech 62%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.

How it plays out

61%straight sets
39%goes to a third set
24.2games on average (17 to 33, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

MB 2-021%
MB 2-117%
AR 2-122%
AR 2-040%

Fair game spread: Rinderknech by about 2.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aBellucci +162
Rinderknech -162 fair
Game spreadn/aBellucci +2.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Arthur Rinderknech can win

  1. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  2. Fresher legs: 24 games played in the last three days to Bellucci's 59
  3. More matches on hard: 175 to Bellucci's 89
  4. Higher rating for this match: 1694 to Bellucci's 1644 (every tour result since 2010, weighted by who it came against, with hard counting extra)
  5. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1680 to Bellucci's 1616
  6. Simulation: Rinderknech wins in straight sets 40% of the time

Disadvantages Why Arthur Rinderknech may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Bellucci wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 60% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

MB BellucciAR Rinderknech
–Seed–
ITAFromFRA
1644Rating for this match1694
1671Rating, all surfaces1708
1616Rating, hard courts only1680
6-4Last 10 matches5-5
136Tour-level matches since 2010288
89Matches on hard175
1 day agoLast matchtoday
5Matches in the last 2 weeks2

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Bellucci 0-1 Rinderknech

  • ARAtlanta Open · QF7-6(5) 3-6 6-1Jul 2024

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

MB Mattia Bellucci

  • WLorenzo Sonego6-4 6-3Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • WThiago Agustin Tirante6-4 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
  • WPablo Carreno Busta6-1 7-6(3)Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
  • LTerence Atmane6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(5)Almaty Open · R2
  • WTomas Martin Etcheverry7-6(5) 2-6 6-4Almaty Open · R1

AR Arthur Rinderknech

  • WFrancisco Cerundolo3-6 7-6(2) 2-0 ret.Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LJerome Kym7-6(1) 6-4Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
  • LDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-4 6-4US Open · R3
  • WJaume Munar7-6(4) 6-2 7-5US Open · R2
  • WSho Shimabukuro6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(4) 6-2US Open · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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