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Alex Molcan vs Taylor Fritz (11)

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court 2, Paris, France

TF
Our pick
TFTaylor Fritz
79% to win
ModelMolcan 21%Fritz 79%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.

How it plays out

68%straight sets
32%goes to a third set
23.0games on average (16 to 32, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

AM 2-010%
AM 2-111%
TF 2-121%
TF 2-057%

Fair game spread: Fritz by about 4.5 games; fair total 21.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aMolcan +373
Fritz -373 fair
Game spreadn/aMolcan +4.5 fair
Total gamesn/a21.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Taylor Fritz can win

  1. More matches on hard: 488 to Molcan's 70
  2. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1909 to Molcan's 1754
  3. Fresher legs: 28 games played in the last three days to Molcan's 74
  4. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  5. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1860 to Molcan's 1674
  6. Seeded 11; Molcan is unseeded
  7. Simulation: Fritz wins in straight sets 57% of the time

Disadvantages Why Taylor Fritz may not

  1. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  2. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  3. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  4. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  5. Upset odds: Molcan wins about 1 time in 5, and takes at least a set 43% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AM MolcanTF Fritz
–Seed11
SVKFromUSA
1714Rating for this match1884
1754Rating, all surfaces1909
1674Rating, hard courts only1860
8-2Last 10 matches7-3
154Tour-level matches since 2010714
70Matches on hard488
1 day agoLast matchtoday
5Matches in the last 2 weeks9

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Molcan 0-1 Fritz

  • TFWimbledon · R36-4 6-1 7-6(3)Jul 2022

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

AM Alex Molcan

  • WTitouan Droguet4-6 6-4 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • WNuno Borges7-6(5) 6-2Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
  • WDaniel Altmaier6-4 7-6(1)Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
  • LAdrian Mannarino7-5 6-2Erste Bank Open · QF (qualifying)
  • WHamad Medjedovic6-2 6-4Erste Bank Open · Q1

TF Taylor Fritz

  • WBenjamin Bonzi3-6 6-3 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • LValentin Vacherot7-6(5) 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · SF
  • WArthur Fils6-2 2-0 ret.Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WDenis Shapovalov6-4 6-3Swiss Indoors Basel · R2
  • WRinky Hijikata6-4 7-6(3)Swiss Indoors Basel · R1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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