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Arthur Fils (6) vs Tomas Machac

ATP 1000 · Rolex Paris Masters
Round 2 · Hard · Best of 3 · · Court Central, Paris, France

TM
Our pick
AFArthur Fils
70% to win
ModelFils 70%Machac 30%

No betting line yet, so no market chance to compare.

Not a promise: a 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

How it plays out

64%straight sets
36%goes to a third set
23.6games on average (17 to 32, 8 times in 10)

Set score (best of 3)

AF 2-048%
AF 2-122%
TM 2-114%
TM 2-016%

Fair game spread: Fils by about 3.5 games; fair total 22.5 games. From an exact model of tennis scoring (points, games, tiebreaks, sets) fed the win chance above, fitted to the real game counts of recent ATP matches on hard, with room for the day's form, so blowouts and long matches show up about as often as they really do.

The line

MarketAZMango
Moneylinen/aFils -232
Machac +232 fair
Game spreadn/aFils -3.5 fair
Total gamesn/a22.5 fair

No line on this page yet. Sportsbooks price most tour matches once the order of play is out; we take a snapshot of tennis lines only when our shared odds budget allows. Game spread: "-3.5" wins if that player takes at least 4 more games than the other over the whole match. Total games counts every game, a tiebreak as one. If a player retires, most books settle the moneyline once a set is complete but void the spread and total; rules differ, so read your book's.

Live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel Unpaid links. We take no bets.

Advantages Why Arthur Fils can win

  1. Stronger overall record: an all-surface rating of 1946 to Machac's 1740
  2. Head to head: leads 1-0 in tour-level meetings since 2010
  3. Fresher legs: 0 games played in the last three days to Machac's 38
  4. Better on hard: a hard-court rating of 1874 to Machac's 1717
  5. Seeded 6; Machac is unseeded
  6. Simulation: Fils wins in straight sets 48% of the time

Disadvantages Why Arthur Fils may not

  1. Machac · Fils retired from a match in the last month, which often means an injury
  2. Machac · More matches on hard: 151 to Fils's 128
  3. One break of serve can decide a set, and a tiebreak is close to a coin flip
  4. Injuries and retirements: about one tour match in 35 ends with a player quitting mid-match, and how a bet settles then depends on the sportsbook's rules
  5. Conditions: wind, heat, altitude, a new ball or a night session can change how a match plays
  6. Ratings lag: a player coming back from injury or on a sudden run is rated on older results
  7. Upset odds: Machac wins about 1 time in 3, and takes at least a set 52% of the time

🥭 Mango Sliced Facts

Ask about this matchup; answers use only this page.

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AI answers can be wrong; the numbers above rule. Not betting advice.

Side by side

AF FilsTM Machac
6Seed–
FRAFromCZE
1910Rating for this match1728
1946Rating, all surfaces1740
1874Rating, hard courts only1717
6-4Last 10 matches6-4
204Tour-level matches since 2010203
128Matches on hard151
5 days agoLast match2 days ago
5Matches in the last 2 weeks7

Rating: an Elo rating from every tour-level singles result since 2010 (a win over a strong player counts more; a newcomer starts at 1400). The rating for this match blends the all-surface rating with the hard-court one, half and half.

Head to head: Fils 1-0 Machac

  • AFTerra Wortmann Open · R16-4 6-4Jun 2024

Tour-level singles since 2010, latest first (up to five). Scores read from the winner's side.

Last 5 matches

AF Arthur Fils

  • LTaylor Fritz6-2 2-0 ret.Swiss Indoors Basel · QF
  • WAlex Michelsen4-6 6-3 7-6(5)Swiss Indoors Basel · R2
  • WGiovanni Mpetshi Perricard7-6(5) 7-5Swiss Indoors Basel · R1
  • LJan-Lennard Struff6-4 6-7(7) 7-6(5)BNP Paribas Fortis European Open · SF
  • WAlex Michelsen6-4 7-6(12)BNP Paribas Fortis European Open · QF

TM Tomas Machac

  • WKyrian Jacquet7-6(7) 6-1Rolex Paris Masters · R1
  • WSebastian Baez6-2 6-4Rolex Paris Masters · QF (qualifying)
  • WMartin Landaluce6-4 6-3Rolex Paris Masters · Q1
  • LAlex de Minaur1-6 6-4 6-3Erste Bank Open · R1
  • WCorentin Moutet6-4 6-4Erste Bank Open · Q1

Player news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

What changed

Nothing since our first call ().

How we get these numbers: our own ratings from every tour-level singles match since 2010, by surface, with rest, recent workload and head to head; the betting market's chance where we have a line. See how it holds up · This matchup on its own

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